Block Universe and determinism, predestination, election, open theology

Gary A.Stilwell

Snippets on determinism, fate, predestination, election, open theology, etc. in support of and contradiction to the Block Universe. From two of my books:
Where Was God: Evil Theodicy, and Modern Science (2009) – WWG and Christianity: 5000 Years of History and Development (2004)

You can have more detail and the big picture in the presentation The Problem of Evil

Plato’s Idealism (WWG p 72-77)

Plato’s, as opposed to some other subsequent philosophies, was not materialistic. He needed something to refute the epistemological relativism and skepticism of the earlier Sophists and Skeptics. The latter had denied the possibility of objective knowledge, and Plato believed that if all was material and subject to the human senses, that they might be correct. However, he claimed that objective knowledge was possible because all true and real knowledge is based on non-material, pre-existing, immutable and eternal models – the Ideas (or Forms), which are other-worldly archetypes of the material objects that we perceive in our world of the natural senses (Republic, 506d–521).
Calling on Pythagorean and Orphic traditions, he used their concepts of metempsychosis, immortality, and recollection to explain how we are able to know reality. The body is the tomb of the soul and the soul’s real home is in the celestial realm where it knows the Ideal Forms. Periodically, it leaves its celestial home to inhabit an earthly body. Unfortunately, it forgets the Ideas and only a few philosophers are able to re-acquire them through hard work. All die and the soul is released only to complete the cycle again and again until such time as philosophical works free it from the bondage of the material world (Republic, 614a – 621d).
The material world of Becoming is opposed to the unchanging Ideal world of Being in an irreconcilable dualism. The pure soul once freed from the corporeal world ―goes away to a place that is . . . unseen world . . . into the presence of the good and wise “God” (Phaedo, 80d). Plato’s worldview is ambiguous, as is his view of the god(s). He holds to the geocentric cosmology, but the place of the afterlife varies from the earth’s surface of Er to the ―true Hades” of the world of Ideas. Plato’s gods exist, sometimes as the God of the Phaedo (67a), sometimes as the Demiurge of the Timaeus and sometimes as the gods of the popular religion.

Plato’s later influence

When Christianity needed a philosophical basis for its Hebraic thinking in a Hellenistic world, it would turn to Plato. It would be Plato’s eschatology that reigned supreme for over a thousand years, displacing or modifying original Christian concepts, such as the millennial Kingdom, in which all of the righteous resurrected dead would participate on the earth.

Stoics and Epicureans (ca. 310 BCE)

The Fates were the personification of one’s inevitable destiny in the Homeric religion, and even Zeus’ son could not escape his fated death. The Greek tragedians built their stories on the fact that one’s destiny was foreordained. Being possessed of virtue (arête) and heroism would not divert Oedipus from his fate, regardless of his attempts to outguess the predictions of the gods.
The Mysteries were to give one a way out of his fate with an appeal to gods who were greater than the controllers of fate. However, the Mysteries appealed only to a minority and the incipient scientific explanations of the universe produced a need for less magical methods.
In the scientific philosophies, fate (also called determinism) had to be explained rationally. Two such philosophies attempted to do just that — coming down on opposite sides of the solution.
Whereas the Homeric religion taught that one’s fate was predetermined (fatalism), the Stoics were exemplars of theistic determinism; that is, all events happen by necessity according to a grand plan. Built on the atomism of Democritus, their cosmos was fated to repeat cyclically. Since one’s fate was determined, the Stoics prized the attributes of indifference (things are neither good nor bad in themselves) and apathy (reason dominates emotion). Therefore, one must “go with the flow”.(52 This non-academic phrase exemplifies Stoic thought – as does Star Trek’s Vulcans). These attributes would also be prized by the early Church Fathers, until Platonic philosophy came to dominate Christian thinking and free choice trumped fate.
Their concept of the Logos(53 Heraclitus (ca. 500 BCE) originally used the term Logos to express parallelism of structure between the actual cosmos and our own thinking about it. The cosmos is the divine’s spoken word. The belief that the world was rationally ordered gives credence to the idea that it is not accidental and must, therefore, be designed by a maker.(the overall plan of all things and events as contained in the divine mind – the pattern for all creation and history) would greatly influence later Gospel of John, neo-Platonism and the Christian Fathers.
The Epicureans took the other side and claimed that fatalism or theistic determinism did not exist. Therefore, they denied the Stoics claim of fate and exemplified the concept of indeterminism.

The Stoics and Epicureans versus Plato

In the seventeenth century CE, Sir Isaac Newton formulated the theory of gravity, and set the stage for a mechanistic view of the universe. With John Dalton’s rediscovery of the atom in the nineteenth century, the Universe was now seen to be a swarm of moving particles whose trajectories could theoretically be calculated. Indeed, if it were not for the fact of there being so many of these material objects, one would be able to predict, from any given starting point, their positions into the indefinite future, making all future events knowable and, thus, already determined. The nineteenth century universe was seen to be totally materialistic and determinate.
With these discoveries, the world-view of the ancient Stoics was revived and was thought to have been proven by modern science.
In what turns out to be quite ironic, Stoicism claimed to be a counter to the misguided philosophy of the Epicurean’s world-view of luck and chance. For the Epicureans, the world consisted of an earth surrounded by the heavenly spheres. And, all was composed of Democritus’ atoms. There were innumerable worlds since there was an infinity of atoms, in a void, that existed for all eternity (letter to Herodotus 41; and Pythocles 89). The Epicureans realized that, if indeed, all things were composed of atoms moving on their own calculatable trajectories, then there could be no such thing as human free will. Since there did appear to be free will, they needed a means to allow for indetermination. It was for this purpose that they imparted a “swerve” to the atoms. This swerve allowed for chance collisions and, therefore, a possibility for choice and free will.
For the Epicureans, choice and free will were doctrines that, combined with their ideas of the complete non-involvement of the gods in the affairs of humans, gave humans the complete freedom to live as they might. All was material, all was chance, and nothing was directly controlled by the gods – the human soul was a combination of atoms that disintegrated upon death, so there was no fear of punishment in an after-life (Epicurus’ letters to Herodotus and to Menoeceous).
Nevertheless, the gods do exist, as they have been perceived through dreams; but they do not directly interfere in the lives of humans, rather they are “left free from duties and in perfect blessedness” (Epicurus’ letter to Pythocles).

How then could an individual be happy? Only by attaining the highest good in life; that is, the absence of pain and the maximum of pleasure.
As suggested above, the Stoics opposed the Epicureans and said that God exists, does care for human things, and was indeed responsible for the creation of the world; and that his divine spark of fire caused the seminal reason (logos spermaticos) to be born. Humans arise from this same divine action and, therefore, partake of this same logos. But, God initiated the world and determined that it would follow his pre-ordained path for the duration of this current world and all the world’s cycles to come (Meditations II: 11–14, XII: 26). This eliminated the possibility of chance or free will.
Thus the Stoics banished the Epicurean “swerve.” The only hope for the individual was to play his apportioned part in the cosmos. This meant recognizing that all are essentially of one divine essence and that the virtue of following the divine will, and doing one’s pre-ordained duty, in this best of all possible worlds, was the only way to happiness. The Stoic philosophy was to influence the Christian religion for many centuries, while the philosophy of Epicurus would be condemned.
Interestingly, in the early part of the twentieth century, the “swerve” was rediscovered. It appears that the trajectories of the atoms might not be pre-ordained after all. The Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics rests on two pillars of scientific observation: Niels Bohr’s Principle of Complementarity exemplified by the wave/particle dualism of light; and the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle that the position and momentum of bodies can be physically traded off (as can energy/time and other complementary dualisms).54 Thus, any object (including Democritus’ atoms) can instantaneously alter their positions of their own volition – the Epicurean “swerve.’
So it seems, at least by our current stage of modern science, that the Epicurean’s view on chance and free will has won out after over 2000 years of being denied first by the Stoics, then by others — among them the sixteenth and seventeenth century versions of both religion and science.
The cosmologies of both schools were materialist, but the implications for the afterlife were very different. The Epicurean allowed for no continuation after death of the body; the soul being made of material atoms simply disintegrated. The soul of the Stoics, however, was reunited after death with Providence or their Principle that controls everything, the Logos. “Re-absorption” may be the more appropriate description for the reunion of the human soul with the pantheistic God, allowing it to reappear in subsequent world cycles of fiery destruction and re-birth.
Neither of these schools of philosophy allowed for a personal continuation of life after death. That option had already been put forward by their predecessors, the Orphics, Pythagoras and, most of all, Plato.
The materialism of Epicurus and Zeno the Stoic was destined to be extinguished for centuries, while the idealism of Plato was to live on in the great philosophies and religions of the West.

Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle 54

For those who would question this oversimplification, I offer this more detailed explanation: Heisenberg actually claimed that the position and the momentum of an object cannot be exactly determined (still, but less so, an oversimplification). The more exact you get one attribute; the less exact is the other. This is not just a measurement problem; the indeterminacy actually exists in nature. The reality of our universe is that there are complementary attributes of material objects that can be traded off in the manner suggested by measuring position and momentum. Time and energy are also complementary attributes in that time can be exchanged for energy. This allows for the existence of virtual particles that spontaneously appear; essentially borrowing mass/energy from time; allowing energy to be created from nothing if only for an infinitesimally short time. Such a spontaneous creation is responsible for the evaporation of black holes and, quite possibly, for the very existence of our observable universe. See also, the later section on quantum physics for additional information.

Enlightenment, materialism revived only to be partially extinguished again by the scientific revolution of the twentieth century.

A summary of three Greek philosophies

For Plato, the world was a dualism of the material and the Ideal Forms; the god(s) exist both as the highest Good and in the world of human beings; the afterlife contains reward, punishment, and rebirth for the masses.
For Epicurus, the world was all eternal material atoms in the void; the gods were aloof from humans and dwelt blissfully between the worlds; the afterlife was not possible since all souls disintegrated at death, so the threats of post-mortem punishments were false.
For the Stoics, the world was a monistic living organism made of matter that cyclically was destroyed and re-created. The one God (although there were lesser others) was responsible for strictly determining the fate of all, which was repeated identically in all cycles; the afterlife was non-personal with the soul reabsorbed into the Logos to be reborn in subsequent world cycles.

Christianity, especially the early Fathers, would embrace much of Stoicism’s imminent and providential God, its rationally created order, and its anthropology and ethics, but would reject the philosophy of Epicurus. Plato is so important for the understanding of the development of later religions that, in following chapters, we will examine the impact of Platonism on all subsequent religious thought.

Christianity: 5000 Years . . . p 289-292

John Calvin (1509–64)

In 1510, Luther was in Rome, as a delegate of his Augustinian order, when John Calvin was celebrating his first birthday. It was while he was in Rome that he tried desperately to rid himself of his feeling of total worthlessness. On bended knees, he ascended the 28 steps of the famous Scala Santa in order to receive the indulgence attached to this ascetic performance. He felt no better for the task and went back to Wittenberg, where he developed his idea of “justification by faith alone.”
If Luther had tried to reform from within, the next significant reformer did not. He would read the works of Luther and leave the Church to become the founder of the second great branch of Protestantism.

301 The first was Lutheran. Calvin‘s was Reformed from which developed: Presbyterian, Congregationalist, Baptist, United Church of Christ, and others. A third early branch was the Anabaptists: Brethern, Amish, Mennonite, etc. A forth early branch was the Anglican: Methodist, Episcopal, Pentecostal, Quaker, etc.
St. Paul had taught a doctrine of predestination in Romans 8 and 9 and in Ephesians 1:
8:29 For those God foreknew he also predestined . . . And those he predestined, he also called; those he called, he also justified; those he justified, he also glorified.
9:14 What then shall we say? Is God unjust? Not at all! 15 For he says to Moses, “I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion.” 9:16 It does not, therefore, depend on man’s desire or effort, but on God’s mercy.
1:4 For he chose us in him before the creation of the world to be holy and blameless in his sight. In love he predestined us to be adopted as his sons through Jesus Christ, in accordance with his pleasure and will.
How is this predestination to be understood? One possibility is that since God is omniscient, he has foreknowledge of how people will behave in the future and, thus, has predestined them to eternal life, or not based on that foreknown behavior. But, this possibility leaves the decision to be saved in the hands of human beings and would seem to take away God‘s sovereignty.

St. Augustine, in his battles with the Pelagian heresy, had come to the conclusion: since humans are corrupt and incapable of gaining salvation on their own, that God alone must have decided whom to save. And, since God is the same for all eternity, he would have made his decision in eternity, before time began. God also had to decide whom to pass by – the mass of perdition – and allow to be damned (see his Enchiridon).

St. Augustine, following Paul, says:

“Because whom He did before foreknow, He also predestinated to be conformed to the image of His Son, that He might be the first-born among many brethren. Moreover, whom He did predestinate, them He also called,” to wit, according to His purpose; “and whom He called, them He also justified; and whom He justified, them He also glorified.” (Rom. 8:29). All those things are already done: He foreknew, He predestinated, He called, He justified; because both all are already foreknown and predestinated, and many are already called and justified; but that which he placed at the end, “them He also glorified”, . . . this is not yet accomplished. Although, also, those two things-that is, He called, and He justified-have not been effected in all of whom they are said,-for still, even until the end of the world, there remain many to be called and justified,-nevertheless, He used verbs of the past tense, even concerning things future, as if God had already arranged from eternity that they should come to pass.
. . . .
Whosoever, therefore, in God’s most providential ordering, are foreknown, predestinated, called, justified, glorified,-I say not, even although not yet born again, but even although not yet born at all, are already children of God, and absolutely cannot perish. . . . From Him, therefore, is given also perseverance in good even to the end; for it is not given save to those who shall not perish, since they who do not persevere shall perish.”

St. Augustine, On Rebuke and Grace, chap 23

During the Reformation, Calvin revived the doctrine that St. Augustine had promulgated over a thousand years earlier. Calvin now also concluded that since God was totally sovereign and his will never changed, it was the logical conclusion that God must have decided one‘s fate from all eternity; he necessarily predestined who was saved and who was damned. This notion harkens back to that of the Stoics where everything was fated to occur, and the only thing you could do was go along. The added element beyond the Stoic philosophy, which made this a much bleaker outlook, was that now a person was immortal and lack of salvation lasted for eternity.

Predestination

The Church, for reasons of its own effective continuation and in spite of its admiration for Augustine, could not allow that doctrine of ―double predestination” to stand, and it was declared invalid at the Council of Orange in 529 CE. Now, with Calvin, it was back and the elect of God would be saved and the rest of the mass of damnation would not.
Election was a gift of God and no one could know if they were among the saved, nor could they do anything about it. The best one could do is believe that if they had been led into the right Christian way of life that this might show evidence of election. An upright life, church membership, worldly success, and experience of being “born again” would provide some indication that you were one gifted with election.
The Reformed church of Calvin codified the doctrine of unconditional predestination, in chapter three of the Westminster Confession of Faith (1647):
God from all eternity did, by the most wise and holy counsel of His own will, freely and unchangeably ordain whatsoever comes to pass: yet so, as thereby neither is God the author of sin, nor is violence offered to the will of the creatures, nor is the liberty or contingency of second causes taken away, but rather established.
By the decree of God, for the manifestation of His glory, some men and angels are predestinated unto everlasting life, and others foreordained to everlasting death.
These angels and men, thus predestinated and foreordained, are particularly and unchangeably designed; and their number is so certain and definite, that it cannot be either increased or diminished.
Those of mankind that are predestinated unto life, God, before the foundation of the world was laid, according to his eternal and immutable purpose, and the secret counsel and good pleasure of His will, hath chosen in Christ unto everlasting glory, out of his mere free grace and love, without any foresight of faith or good works, or perseverance in either of them, or anything in the creature, as conditions, or causes moving him thereunto; and all to the praise of his glorious grace.

Westminster Confession of Faith

It would seem that St. Paul, St. Augustine, and Calvin had reached an unimpeachable conclusion as to God‘s sovereignty, unchangeable will, and the inability of fallen humanity to contribute anything to its own salvation. But, as the Church had done earlier with Augustine, other Reformers would now do to Calvin and the Reformed Church; that is, find a way around this doctrine.

Jacobus Arminius (1560–1609) was a Reformed minister from Holland, who was in the vanguard of those who objected to this harsh doctrine; and in 1610, his disciples produced a document called the Remonstrance. This document, also called The Five Arminian Articles, was aimed at what they considered the most egregious articles of Calvinism.

WWG p 154-157

THE ENLIGHTENMENT
NEWTONIAN SCIENCE AND DETERMINISM

In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, there appeared an intellectual movement in Europe that came to be known as the Age of the Enlightenment. In the 1780’s, Immanuel Kant will look upon his preceding century, and see that emancipation from superstition and ignorance was the essence of the Enlightenment.
The monolithic Church had been assaulted in turn by Humanism, the Renaissance, and the Protestant Reformation. The resurgence of classical rational thought, the experimental sciences, and the doubts caused by the breakdown of religious tradition allowed new modes of examining the world.
For almost 2000 years the cosmology of Aristotle (384 – 322 BCE), along with the slight modifications of Ptolemy (fl. 127-151 CE) reigned supreme. It was a scientific model of the universe that was based on the best evidence of the times.139

Ptolemy, Aristotle, and others had conceived of the universe as a series of concentric spheres with the Earth at the center, with the planets, moon and sun orbiting it; and finally surrounded by the outermost fixed sphere of the stars. Of course, over the centuries, the model had to be modified in order to accommodate observed motions in the heavens (e.g., epicycles, equants, etc.) and to make the model “work;” that is, predict events.
Even with these alterations in the model, the spheres were maintained, and the Christian Church accepted Ptolemy’s world view. In fact, this view was incorporated into the Christian faith as part of its teachings, giving to God the Realm beyond the outermost sphere. For centuries the harmony of the spheres existed in complete accord with the Christian notions of the afterlife, with its heaven, hell, and purgatory. In order for that physical system to work with the religious system, the earth had to be at the very center of the universe with hell under the earth, and outside the outermost sphere was the abode of God in the highest heaven. The sphere of the moon marked the dividing line between the divine realm and the realm of matter and flesh.
This placed the “scientific” explanation of reality into Church teaching with the full force of authority. Significant changes to, or abandonment of, the geo-centric sphere model would eliminate the Realm of God by destroying its doctrinal foundation and undermine the authority of the Church; therefore, there could be no change. Therefore, the scientific idea of Copernicus and Galileo was condemned as foolish and absurd and heretical since it contradicts Scriptural doctrine.
Many people who realized the need for a more accurate view of reality demanded change, and the Church burned them at the stake for their effort. One would think that the eventual victory of the new model of reality (in the face of dogmatic “truth”) would have destroyed the keepers of that dogma. One would have to think again.
What actually happened was that progress in knowledge and understanding of reality was thwarted for centuries, and the betterment of mankind was retarded. This kind of drag on the improvements to man’s lot almost certainly has been responsible for the continued ignorance that resulted in the plagues and famines that have killed or made life miserable for millions. And, it continues…
When the scientific world-view changed, conflict arose. Religion would be advised to stay out of the scientific business of “how” the world works.

Mechanistic World View

Now, the pendulum swung the other way. Copernicus (1473-1543) had seen a flaw in the Ptolemaic model and sought to replace it using better observations. His system was not accepted by the Church, but neither was it immediately accepted by science. It worked and solved the growing list of problems that had accumulated over the centuries, but, originally, it did not predict events as well as the older model. Obviously, it was still incomplete.
Eventually, with improvements, it became the new model of how the universe operates and had to be accepted by both religion and science.
However, in this acceptance, a terrible thing happened. The earth was no longer at the center of the universe and the exalted status of humankind was thereby diminished. Still, the idea that the sub-lunar world was controlled by imperfect matter was intact, while the super-lunar world of the planets and stars remained the realm of perfection and the domain of God.
Then, in the 17th century, came Isaac Newton (1642–1727) the originator of classical physics. Newton wondered why things were attracted to the earth, why does an apple fall downward instead of flying off into space from the spinning earth? One of the most powerful insights ever had by man was the idea of gravitation. Newton realized that the same force that attracted the apple also kept the revolving earth itself, along with the other planets, from flying away from the sun. The two attractions were the same force! The last refuge of perfection was thus banished with the realization that there were no sub- and super-lunar realms of imperfection and perfection. There was only the universal law that operated on the earth and the heavens. Now, the domain of God was taken from us as well.
The laws of the universe discovered by Isaac Newton showed the world to be a giant deterministic mechanism that could be understood by human reason and without resort to the religious concept of a personal God managing everything behind the scenes. Indeed, a clockwork universe eliminated the need for anything but an initiator to get things started, and then leave the mechanism to its own devices.
Many intellectuals of the Enlightenment either rejected God altogether or, at least, relegated Him to retirement. It appeared obvious that a clockwork universe in which all future events were already determined would not have a need for, indeed contradict, the God of theology. Therefore, many accepted God as the creator that got the universe started, then rested while it ran itself. These were the Deists, many of whom were the Founders of the United States of America.
Many others claimed that nature was perfectly capable of starting itself and thus eliminated God from scientific inquiry altogether. One such person was the Marquis de Laplace (1749-1827), who presented an edition of his scientific work, Mecanique celeste (which showed how the solar system might have arisen without divine intervention) to Napoleon aboard ship in the Mediterranean during the Napoleonic expedition to Egypt in 1798. He famously responded to the Emperor’s question of how God fitted into his scheme, “Sire, I have no need of that hypothesis”. Laplace was simply saying that science deals with natural law and that God must be removed if the laws are to be useful. In other words, there is no place for miraculous interventions if we are to make scientific predictions. In the 21st century, we might do well to understand this.
Laplace may have just eliminated God from his equations, but others would use this opportunity to eliminate the need for God altogether, making the world truly deterministic, mechanistic, and materialistic.
With the advent and development of classical physics, many intelligent people, including scientists and philosophers, believed that if we but knew the positions and velocities of all material bodies, we could determine what would happen into the infinite future. Since this was thought to be theoretically (not practically) possible, all that the universe needed was an initial start; and all events were pre-determined from then on. This classical mechanistic view of the universe lulled us into believing that all physical things were knowable; since they were determinate.
The eighteenth century mechanistic universe was believed to have eliminated the need for traditional religion, and this belief is still around. It shouldn’t be, because the mechanistic and materialistic universe worldview, as we shall see, has been utterly supplanted by the new physics.
So, the classical world has been shattered by a new way of thinking about the universe and nothing is so certain anymore.

WWG p 186-188

THE NEW PHYSICS AND INDETERMINISM

We’ve already briefly referred to the sciences of classical physics, geology, and biology in earlier chapters. Additionally, via the Interlude stories, we’ve also been introduced to some of the modern physical sciences (bold type in Fig. 12).

Fig. 12 Purpose of the Interlude Stories

Now, we’ll more fully deal with the physical sciences that developed during the 20th century. For many readers, this science may be dealt with more fully than you feel necessary for the
understanding of how modern science is related to the Problem of Evil. Therefore, some of this material may be skimmed or passed over.
Quantum physics, chaos theory, and general relativity are the most important sciences for our topic but the others: atomic and nuclear physics, the structure of matter and forces, and special relativity provide helpful, perhaps necessary, background to their deeper understanding. First, a review of:

The Materialistic Worldview of Post-Newtonian Reality

For Newton and his successors up to the 20th century, Time and Space are absolute and separate entities. Atoms are the smallest, indivisible basic building blocks of everything there is.

The whole Universe is made of atoms, and it functions like a giant clockwork mechanism. If I know the positions and velocities of all the parts, I can completely know the future – it is already determined!

The evolution of physics

By the end of the 20th century, not one of the above statements was true. The old classical physics of an earlier age was dethroned and relegated to a subset of modern physics primarily by the two towering achievements of the early part of the century – Relativity and Quantum Mechanics.
These shifts in the scientific paradigm destroyed the deterministic universe! And set the stage for indeterminism.

Atomic Theory

What are atoms? Later, in the section on general relativity, we will discuss black holes. At the center of a black hole matter is squeezed into zero volume. So, just what is this matter155that can be so squeezed in a black hole?
The easy answer is that entity that was postulated by the Greek philosopher, Democritus (ca. 420 BCE) so long ago: atomos. This matter is atoms; the un-cutable thing that remains after some material object has been cut the ultimate time.
By convention sweet, by convention bitter, by convention hot, by convention cold, by convention color, but in reality nothing exists but atoms and the void (Democritus).
What we perceive by the senses is not reality! Democritus claimed that sizes and shapes of the atoms are what determine a material’s properties.
By inferring the existence of atoms from purely rational thinking, he was able to provide the answer to the Heraclitus and Parmenides impasse concerning whether things change

(Becoming) or things are static (Being).

Heraclitus (ca. 490 BCE) had claimed that all things were in a state of flux, where nothing stays the same, and famously said: “you can’t step into the same river twice.” This, of course, is a clever way of saying that the river will have changed between the first and second steps. All things are Becoming.
Parmenides (ca. 450 BCE), on the other hand, countered with proofs that nothing really changes at all. He said that “what is” cannot transition through “what is not” to become something else. That is, all things are in a static state of Being.
It would seem that an impasse existed and that both cannot be right. So it would appear until Democritus came up with a way for both to be true. His tiny building blocks of the material world are, indeed, static in their composition; they cannot change. However, as they constantly move and join together to create the items we perceive, they form a larger world of constantly shifting flux. Democritus had provided a synthesis of his two predecessor’s philosophies where permanence and flux are reconciled.
Unfortunately for science, Plato156 also provided a synthesis of Heraclitus and Parmenides, and had done so without resorting to Democritus’ atoms. Plato won and we had to wait twenty two centuries for the scientifically correct answer to resurface.

WWG p 207-208, 212

Quantum mechanics, Bell’s theorem and holism

The essence of (Niels Bohr’s Principle of Complementarity) is that, even though the wave and particle descriptions [of light] seem to be mutually exclusive, we are never
forced to choose between them because they cannot be simultaneously revealed. The two descriptions —wave and particle — are complementary.163
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle states that it is not possible to simultaneously measure both the exact momentum of a particle and its exact position.
The “momentum versus position” uncertainty is not simply a problem of measurement precision. It actually exists, as do other uncertainties, such as “time versus energy` which allows the creation of matter/energy out of nothing, if it is observed within the quantum fluctuation time allowed by uncertainty. One might say that the universe will trade a little time for a little matter, and that “may-fly” of the sub-nuclear world, the virtual particle, is, thereby, allowed its bit of existence.
The complementarity and uncertainty concepts taken together became —

The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

The essence of the Copenhagen interpretation is that the world must be observed to be objective. It makes no sense to claim that quantum entities possess attributes (such as momentum, spin, etc) until an actual measurement has taken place. This interpretation “works”, but at the expense of determinism and of the objective reality of the world.

Bohr vs. Einstein

Einstein believed in realism — that an objective world exists independently of any observation process and, therefore, claimed, “I still believe in the possibility of giving a model of reality which shall represent events themselves and not merely the possibility of their occurrence” (qtd. in Resnick 224). He claimed that quantum theory is incomplete.
Einstein was upset with the indeterminism and lack of objective reality, but finally admitted defeat and agreed that the Copenhagen interpretation was, indeed, consistent and “worked.” But, not to give up, he claimed that the quantum theory was an incomplete theory because it violated local causality — that events far away cannot instantaneously influence objects here. The great debate, over the reality of the world implied by quantum theory (between Niels Bohr and Albert Einstein) began in 1927 and continued for years. At one point in the debate, in order to defeat quantum theory, Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen proposed a thought experiment (the famous EPR paradox).

Quantum wholeness and non-locality (summary)

Einstein and Bohr – Einstein did not like the uncertainty (indeterminism) of QT – ‘God doesn’t play dice.” Einstein argued for determinism against Bohr.
Devised EPR experiment to refute ‘spooky-actions-at-a-distance” and Uncertainty.
Bell (1964) showed mathematically that quantum theory predicts different measurements than classical physics would on the EPR – type experiments. The EPR Experiment – Tried to disprove Uncertainty.

Bell’s Theorem – shows that something must be faster than light?

Aspect (1982) confirmed quantum indeterminacy and non-locality by experiment.
It has been shown that there is a quantum connectedness between two particles in an EPR-type experiment; particles in different places can be entangled such that a local
description of each is impossible.

Aspect’s Experiment – shows that all is One Spooky action at a distance is a fact!

WWG p 219

We know that black holes, thanks to our understanding of quantum theory and general relativity, can totally eliminate any last vestige of determinism. Remember Laplace and his absolute determinism, where by knowing the initial state of any system you could predict its final state. In other words, if I know the precise position and momentum of everything in the present universe, I could theatrically calculate the future position and momentum of everything at any point in the future. Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle reduced that ability, but one could still use the quantum wave function to calculate probabilities of system states now or at any time in the future – what happens in the present does still have some correspondence with what happens in the future.
We lose even that with black holes. What falls into a black hole loses all of its properties except mass, so if at any time in the future the black hole radiates,72 its mass away to nothing, what comes out has zero correspondence with what went in. Information is totally lost to our universe. This loss of information would result in the ultimate loss of predictability and therefore, of determinism.
It can’t get any more indeterministic than this! However, for the sake of completeness, here is one more result of modern science that reduces the ability to predict the future, thus leaving it open to becoming.

WWG p 236-242

Whitehead’s Process Theology

Alfred North Whitehead (1861 – 1947) would have been famous even if he had stopped working after producing, in collaboration with Bertrand Russell, his magnum opus, Principia Mathematica in which he showed that mathematics can be reduced to logic. That work took place between 1910 – 1913, after which he moved to the United States and became a philosopher. It was during this time that he produced a comparably great work on metaphysics, Process and Reality in 1929. This metaphysics provides a radically different foundation for a new theodicy.
The discerning Christian may have noticed the extreme dichotomy between the God of the Hebrew Bible and the God of Greek philosophy-based orthodox Christianity. In the former, God is a person who interacts with and is affected by His creatures. In the latter, God is unchangeable, impassible, possesses aseity, and is far beyond the reach of His creatures. This is the age-old problem of immanence versus transcendence, which is solved only with a strained theology. Just what is the nature of ultimate reality?
Process theology has developed from the philosophy of Alfred North Whitehead, as modified by Charles Hartshorne and others. It has become quite influential in liberal Protestantism, Unitarian Universalism and non-Orthodox Judaism.
Traditionally, the fundamental reality is Being. In the world, being is made up of matter consisting of particles and composites of particles (i.e., atoms and molecules). Matter is inert until acted upon by some outside force which may move or change it. What if, instead of Being, the fundamental reality is Becoming where the primal things are not particles but rather events, occurrences, or processes? What if reality consists of instances of change and to be actual is to be a process? The basic units of reality in Whitehead’s world he calls actual occasions.
For Process philosophy, fundamental reality is basically an evolving process. Reality is not a collection of static particles, rather it is made up of building blocks called actual entities or actual occasions – consider them “beings” that are in the process of development. The building blocks possess some freedom to develop according to some organizing principle that is capable of creating order out of chaos. In this philosophy that principle is called God, who is unlike other entities in that He is imperishable and is the root of causation. God essentially creates order out of chaos and not ex nihilo as many Church Fathers had claimed. This idea of creation matches that of Plato and some early Church Fathers, in that evil is possible due to the limitations of the imperfect material God had to work with. Since all entities are free, God can organize by persuasive love only; never coercion. All activities of any actual occasion (entity) affects all others, thus God not only influences and affects other entities, but is influenced and affected by them.
Instead of a lot of atoms acted upon by forces, the world is a lot of happenings or processes acting of their own volition. In the beginning was God and an uncreated chaos of actual occasions. God was powerful in that He set about to influence the actual occasions to evolve into the creaturely reality we see about us. God was not all powerful since the actual occasions have an inherent primal creativity and power which allows it to choose to actualize one of the potential ways it can become.
In summary, God in Process Theology is not the omnipotent impassible God of later Greek philosophy and cannot impose His will on human beings; therefore God is limited allowing Him to comply with the decisions made by humans. Neither is God omniscient, since the future is not yet actualized and therefore unknown.
Process thought is completely compatible with the theory of evolution. Remember that Darwin was appalled by the process of evolution with its excessive waste, struggles, millions of year’s time frame, and the dependence on chance. Darwin realized that something of the traditional God of western theology would have to go if this process were to be explained in a way that did not make God the author of such sustained evil. So too we, in order to understand the apparent evils of evolution, one must rethink the traditional notion of God.
It maybe asked if this view of God leaving the universe open, unfinished, and awaiting the decisions of the various levels of beings might diminish the belief in the creativity of God. The Process theologian says absolutely not. God is still the ground of all Being and all existence and change depend ultimately upon Him. They claim that a God who micro-manages the evolution of the universe actually demotes God to the level of other natural processes.
As proposed in the Kabbalah and other mystical systems, God must intentionally limit Himself, thus evil is a consequence of God’s self-imposed retreat from the world of His creation; sometimes called the hiddenness of God (deus absconditus). This would allow the development of the universe to remain open and autonomous, thus maximizing Man’s freedom and free will. In this interpretation of the Kabbalah, God is seen as deliberately creating an imperfect world, although, being omnipotent, He could have created it perfect. Other interpretations have it that this is the best that God could do; He is not omnipotent.
Thus God’s power is persuasive rather than coercive and He lures His creatures towards the best possibilities. Since they are free-willed, they can thwart God’s intentions and thus keep Him from seeing the contingent future. If God can be thwarted, His consequent nature is always changing so that all of the experiences of all creatures are assimilated and become part of God’s conscious life. This is more in line with the God of the Hebrew Bible who interacted with His creatures and was affected by them.
In Process Thought there are two values that come about through moments of experience: harmony and intensity. The lack of these two values leads to evil; lack of harmony leads to discord and lack of intensity leads to needless triviality. These two values are in conflict and both cannot be simultaneously maximized, thus allowing evil into the process.
This reconciles God with the state of the world by not even attempting to argue for God’s omnipotence. God is already doing everything in His power to persuade His creatures to do good and prevent evil; therefore He is not responsible for the evil that does actually occur. The problem with this philosophy is that it wipes out thousands of years of established classical theology and is supported only by the fact that it solves the Problem of Evil.
God is capable of acting in the world, but only through persuasion and not by force. He is manifest in the world via inspiration and the creation of possibilities, but never through miracles or other violations of the laws of nature. God lacks the attribute of omnipotence, but humanity is guaranteed absolute freedom of will.
This formulation of God’s limitations being the source of evil was made popular by the work of Rabbi Harold Kushner in his widely read When Bad Things Happen to Good People.
Let me suggest that the author of the Book of Job takes the position which neither Job nor his friends take. He believes in God’s goodness and in Job’s goodness, and is prepared to give up his belief in proposition (A): that God is all-powerful. Bad things do happen to good people in this world, but it is not God who wills it. . . Forced to choose between a good God who is not totally powerful, or a powerful God who is not totally good, the author of the Book of Job chooses to believe in God’s goodness. . . .
Having created the orderly world from chaos, perhaps God isn’t quite finished and bad events take place. “These events do not reflect God’s choices. They happen at random, and randomness is another name for chaos, in those corners of the universe where God’s creative light has not yet penetrated. And chaos is evil; not wrong, not malevolent, but evil nonetheless, because by causing tragedies at random, it prevents people from believing in God’s goodness.
. . .
God does not cause our misfortunes. Some are caused by bad luck, some are caused by bad people, and some are simply an inevitable consequence of our being human and being mortal, living in a world of inflexible natural laws. The painful things. . . not punishments for our misbehavior, nor. . . part of some grand design on God’s part… tragedy is not God’s will.
Open Theism
Many in the Protestant Evangelical community have sought to reconcile the fact of evil by acknowledging that God is limited in His Omniscience, therefore unable to see the future until it is actualized by our free-will choices. God knows all of the past and present but not the conditional future. This theodicy is known as Open Theism or, also, Free Will Theism.
It is claimed to have Biblical support where God makes mistakes, is surprised, changes His mind and adapts to humanity’s free will choices:
Genesis 22:12. He said, ‘Do not lay your hand on the boy or do anything to him; for now I know that you fear God, since you have not withheld your son, your only son, from me.’

Exodus 32:14. And the LORD changed his mind about the disaster that he planned to bring on his people.

This posting is complemented by: Theodicy Revisited

Paranormal phenomena, physics and reality

Since our basic quest is to do it empiricallly, the first question is: Does it actually exists? And I open the post with an evidence of that:

Description

On February 4, 1974, members of the Symbionese Liberation Army kidnapped nineteen-year-old newspaper heiress Patricia Hearst from her Berkeley, California apartment. Desperate to find her, the police called physicist Russell Targ and Pat Price, a psychic retired police commissioner. As Price turned the pages of the police mug book filled with hundreds of photos, suddenly he pointed to one of them and announced, “That’s the ringleader.” The man was Donald DeFreeze, who was indeed subsequently so identified. Price also described the type and location of the kidnap car, enabling the police to find it within minutes. That remarkable event is one reason Targ believes in ESP. Another occurred when his group made $120,000 by forecasting for nine weeks in a row the changes in the silver-commodity futures market.

As a scientist, Targ demands proof. His experience is based on two decades of investigations at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI), which he cofounded with physicist Harold Puthoff in 1972. This twenty-million dollar program launched during the Cold War was supported by the CIA, NASA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and Army and Air Force Intelligence. The experiments they conducted routinely presented results could have happened by chance less than once in a million. Targ describes four types of experiments:

  1. Remote Viewing, in which a person describes places and events independent of space and time. For example, while in California Price drew to scale a Soviet weapons factory at Semipalitinsk with great accuracy later confirmed by Satellite photography. In another remote viewing, Targ accurately sketched an airport in San Andreas, Columbia himself.
  2. Distant Mental Influence, where the thoughts of the experimenter can positively or negatively affect the physiology (heart rate, skin resistance, etc.) of a distant person.
  3. Whole field isolation, where someone in a state of sensory isolation accurately describes the visual experiences of someone else in another place
  4. Precognition and retrocausality, showing that the future can affect the past. That is, the elephant you see on television in the morning can be the cause of your having dreamed about elephants the previous night.

Final chapters present evidence for survival after death; explain how ESP works based on the Buddhist/Hindu view of our selves as nonlocal, eternal awareness; discuss the ethics of exercising psychic abilities,and show us how to explore ESP ourselves. “I am convinced,” Targ says, “that most people can learn to move from their ordinary mind to one not obstructed by conventional barriers of space and time. Who would not want to try that?”

Praise For The Reality Of ESP: A Physicist’s Proof Of Psychic Abilities

“A scientist shares his years of cutting-edge research and discovery in psychic abilities: remote viewing, extrasensory perception, mental influence, space and time, healing at a distance and “how it all works: the physics of miracles.”
Light of Consciousness

— Reviews

“In this witty and informative new book, physicist-author and renowned psi researcher Targ summarizes three decades of research into psychic phenomena, describing the evidence as “so strong as to be logically or probabilistically unreasonable to deny.” From psychic policemen and stock market predictions to military programs and the “physics of miracles,” the realm of ESP is varied and deep, and Targ covers it all. He concludes with a chapter on how to cultivate one’s own paranormal abilities.” —The Noetic Post
— Reviews

“In The Reality of ESP: A Physicist’s Proof of Psychic Abilities, Russell Targ shares his comprehensive scientific research to provide convincing evidence that by quieting our minds we can access information in the field of potentiality where there is no distance in space and time” —Deepak Chopra, author of War of the Worldview
— Reviews

“This book, detailing its author’s many successful investigations into the paranormal, should make those who deny the possible existence of such phenomena think again.” —Brian Josephson, Nobel Laureate in Physics and Emeritus Professor, Physics, University of Cambridge
— Reviews

“For decades, physicist Russell Targ has produced some of the most significant scientific research ever conducted on the nature of consciousness. He has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that the mind can function without limitation in space and time, and that this ability is widespread, teachable, and practical. The Reality of ESP is an inspiring description of who we really are, and why we should not settle for less” —Larry Dossey, MD, author of Healing Words and The Power of Premonitions
— Reviews

Carl G Jung and Inquiries into the paranormal

cf Wikipedia

Jung had an apparent interest in the paranormal and occult. For decades he attended seances and claimed to have witnessed “parapsychic phenomena”. Initially, he attributed these to psychological causes, even delivering a 1919 lecture in England for the Society for Psychical Research on “The Psychological Foundations for the belief in spirits”. However, he began to “doubt whether an exclusively psychological approach can do justice to the phenomena in question” and stated that “the spirit hypothesis yields better results”. Showing his own skepticism toward this postulation, as he could not find material evidence of the existence of spirits.

Jung’s ideas about the paranormal culminated in “synchronicity. This is the idea that certain coincidences manifest in the world, have exceptionally intense meaning to observers. Such coincidences have great effect on the observer from multiple cumulative aspects: from the immediate personal relevance of the coincidence to the observer; from the peculiarities of (the nature of, the character, novelty, curiosity of) any such coincidence; from the sheer improbability of the coincidence, having no apparent causal link (hence Jung’s essay subtitle “An Acausal Connecting Principle“). Despite his own experiments failing to confirm the phenomenon he held on to the idea as an explanation for apparent ESP. In addition, he proposed it as a functional explanation for how the I-Ching worked, although he was never clear about how synchronicity worked.

Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Jung influenced one philosophical interpretation (not the science) of quantum physics with the concept of synchronicity regarding some events as non causal. That idea influenced the physicist Wolfgang Pauli (with whom, via a letter correspondence, he developed the notion of unus mundus in connection with the notion of nonlocality) and some other physicists.

My take on:

R.E.Campos

Seances or communication with spirits

Synchronicity

I Ching

Quantum Physics and Paranormal Phenomena

We are entering unchartered territory and we should wear a diving suit such as scuba divers, to walk in the depths without drowning, or worse, getting contaminated and this clothing must be waterproofed with the concepts that are exposed in THE BURDEN OF SKEPTICISM. I did an entire blog/site on psychoanalysis as it came to exist from Freud and Jung and Synchronicity and I Ching are well covered there, but Seances and Quantum Physics and Paranormal Phenomena, were not and, althoug is covered by Wikipedia, I want to summarize and expose how I see it.

From Jung’s text on Synchronicity, I quote (818) Exposition

“The discoveries of modern physics have, as we know, brought about a significant change in our scientific picture of the world, in that they have shattered the absolute validity of natural law and made it relative. Natural laws are statistical truths, which means that they are completely valid only when we are dealing with macrophysical quantities. In the realm of very small quantities prediction becomes uncertain, if not impossible, because very small quantities no longer behave in accordance with the known natural laws.
[819] The philosophical principle that underlies our conception of natural law is causality. But if the connection between cause and effect turns out to be only statistically valid and only relatively true, then the causal principle is only of relative use for explaining natural processes and therefore presupposes the existence of one or more other factors which would be necessary for an explanation. This is as much as to say that the connection of events may in certain circumstances be other than causal,
and requires another principle of explanation.”


My comentary (R.E.Campos)

This is the worst kind of lie there is, because it is half truth. He is right in his considerations, but he omits the fact that for the kind of subject he is discussing, which is metaphysical and philosophical, the point of view of the observer is essential. Another thing, he does not give any example that can be evaluated according to the scientific criteria that he correctly describes. His speech seems like he is seeing in a crystal ball, which only he can see, how the reality of things is at their deepest level and, if that was the case, he would be a prophet, eventually sent by God, knowing the formula how the world exists.

Wolfgang Pauli

Worst than half truths is a first rate mind physicist having visions, dreams and premonitions and trying to put this square peg which is Paranormal Phenomena in the round hole which is Science, somehow in some way as thanks and sympathy for the psychiatrist who treated him in a moment of crisis.

Wikipedia tells us that at the end of 1930, shortly after his postulation of the neutrino and immediately after his divorce and his mother’s suicide, Pauli experienced a personal crisis. In January 1932 he consulted Carl Jung, who also lived near Zurich. Jung immediately began interpreting Pauli’s deeply archetypal dreams based on the I Ching and Pauli became a collaborator of Jung. He soon began to critique the epystemology of Jung’s theory scientifically, and this contributed to a certain clarification of Jung’s ideas, especially about synchronicity. A great many of these discussions are documented in the Pauli/Jung letters, today published as Atom and Archetype. Jung’s elaborate analysis of more than 400 of Pauli’s dreams is documented in Psychology and Alchemy.

Deirdre Blair in her biography of Jung informs us that in 1936 Jung was invited to receive an honorary doctorate and to give a lecture at the Tercenary Conference of Arts and Sciences. The narrative of this trip is full of incidents (pg 83-92 of vol 2 of the Portuguese edition), but what matters here is Volfgang Pauli and how Quantum Physics became linked with the paranormal. And take the opportunity to understand why Jung leaves me cold…

They traveled by ship and as was customary at the time, reporters interviewed passengers, especially the illustrious ones. Knowing this, Jung prepared a statement about his political views in light of the time when “Europe was deeply troubled”, which I transcribe and explain why:

“I despise politics with all my heart: therefore, I am neither a Bolshevik, nor a National Socialist, nor an anti-Semitic. I am a neutral Swiss and even in my own country I have no interest in politics, because I am convinced that 99% of politics are mere symptoms and anything but a cure for social ills. Some 50% of politics are definitely execrable, as they poison the rather incompetent minds of the masses.”

No newspaper ever published that or announced his arrival.

Jung’s involvement with Nazism, especially in the notorious advocacy for the superiority of the Aryan race, from which Jung came in the Swiss branch of it, reached America with quite a loud buzz, sparking considerable debate among the Members of the Harvard Tercentenary Committee whether or not they should invite him.

The Committe decided to invite him and Jerome D.Greene justified the decision explainning that as many illustrious European scientists, Jung had been carried away by his own prejudices and turned away from the strict observance of scientific objectivity. For the Harvard people, there was no objectivity in the aspects involving the racial question and there should be no censorship because it was a matter of opinion, especially since the symposium intended to present several points of view.
An event that demonstrates Jung’s astuteness, opportunism and character was the N Y Times headline about his interview, where he analyzed Franklin D. Roosevelt, a Harvard graduate who opened the Conference, which reads: “‘Rooselvet is remarkable’ , is Jung’s analysis”. Before coming to the US, resonating with his Nazi sympathies, he had declared that Roosevelt was “an opportunist, perhaps even an unpredictable mind.”

He even sweetened the pill, declaring that “Hitler was not a man, but a phenomenon, a nobody who expressed what the Germans wanted to hear.”

Jung’s official citation for the Symposium read in part as follows: “Doctor of Science. A philosopher who examined the unconscious, a doctor of the mind whose wisdom and understanding brought relief to many struggling people.”

Many less-than-flattering stories circulated around Harvard after the event, indicating that he was actually quite arrogant and perhaps had a certain contempt for the American intelligentsia, who got back at him, having been introduced a few times as “Dr. Freud”, perhaps as a substitute that he actually was, since Freud was already quite ill in 1936 (he died in 1939) as well as being quite old.

The reporters did not spare him, asking if he was, after all, nothing more than a “disciple” of Freud, who was the true “master”. It is not known if there was a response.

Generally speaking, Jung did not make a very favorable impression at Harvard, for his comments in insisting on a supposed difference between German and Jewish psychology, as well as for women and blacks, and also for the rudeness of his behavior.

He later delivered a series of lectures at Bailey Island, in contrast to what happened at Harvard, answering endless questions about the central theme of the lectures, which was about “a highly intellectual man, thirty-two years old, who had come out of the rails” and of which he had used dreams and visions for the lectures.

This man, no one noticed, was Wolfgang Pauli, whom he would later always refer to as “the Nobel Prize man” and with whom, a few years later, in 1948, he would write a book, “The Nature of the Psyche” and when Pauli was invited and accepted to be a patron of the Institute founded by Jung to propagate his ideas.

Actually, in this book, Jung did write about synchronicity and Pauli about the influence of archetypal ideas on the formation of scientific theories in Kepler as it can be seen from the original Title of the book in German: Naturerklärung und Psyche. C. G. Jung: Synchronizität als ein Prinzip akausaler Zusammenhänge. W. Pauli: Der Einfluss archetypischer Vorstellungen auf die Bildung naturwissenschaftlicher Theorien bei Kepler. 

The “Exposition” quoted above is clearly under the endorsement of Pauli’s ideas, although with the flaws I mentioned. To close the subject and my reasoning, it should be pointed out that the statistical treatment that Jung gave to the data which allowed him to his conclusions is done with probability in mind, whereas, in Science, statistics is used more as an analysis tool, i.e., there are two main types of statistical analysis: descriptive and inferential, also known as modeling, while Jung was dealing with inferential, science uses descriptive statistics. He mixes both as the same, what in the case of science it is not. Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past events. Probability is primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the consequences of mathematical definitions.

Whoever wants to go deeper and better understand W.Pauli’s case, it was described by Jung in The Tavistock Lectures, which can be seen in his Complete Works, V 18, lecture 5, paragraphs 402/406, , pag 173/6

Block Universe.

To situate the question, I quote from the Reality and Time blog site the following:

The idea that time isn’t “real” is an ancient one — if we’re allowed to refer to things as “ancient” under the supposition that time isn’t real. You will recall the humorous debate we had at our Setting Time Aright conference a few years ago, in which Tim Maudlin (the world’s most famous living exponent of the view that time isn’t real) and Julian Barbour (who believes strongly that time is real, and central) were game enough to argue each other’s position, rather than their own. Confusingly, they were both quite convincing.

See and hear the debate, because I will use it to argument.

Tim Maudlin

Tim Maudlin opening comparing the illusion of how we thought the Earth was the center of the Universe leaves some questions to be desired. Although it was an illusion, it was the point of view of the observer, which is not taken into consideration in Newton’s Physics, or Einstein’s or Quantum Mechanics and is the main consideration of the Block Universe conception. He is comparing apples to oranges because in Physics, specially with the use of Mathematics, it is done with eternalism stactically in mind, what might be the same situation of mankind before Copernicus and actually he could be as wrong as those who imagined the Earth as the center of the Universe. Let’s see that in more detail.

Kudos for him on his good humour claiming for moral equality and disagreeing with Einstein’s privileging a fourth dimension…

When he introduces the notions of Quantum Mechanics applied to space time he again mixes apples with oranges and it is not nostalgia at all, as he says, to think as we do. To have it, could only be possible by eliminating the point of view of the observer and then you could sort of create a self contained notion of space time that simply has nothing to do with we human beings, eliminated from the picture.

To see what I mean, imagine a tree in Mars (if they exist), if it falls down, will it produce sound? Without a human being to hear, does sound exist? By his same token, from the Quantum Mechanics point of view, reality does not exist…

Julian Barbour

He opens up saying that instead of wit, which is plentiful, as it can be heard and seen in Tim Maudlin pitch, he intends to do his presentation with passion and from personal experience. He starts with experimental evidence, to which he claims that nothing is more sure and definite than one’s experience. He has a very strong feeling of a continued existence through time, very vivid memories of his childhood, which gives him a very personal sense of personal time. He makes fun of his punctuality, perhaps because Tim or the event was late. He adds that he has absolute fascination for the study of history as a linear process. He them comes down to psychological experience which he thinks is very important and he thinks that science must always be looking forward to encompass more things and if you think about it, nothing is more vital than the sense of becoming and he makes fun of Tim because of his book The end of Time where he wants him to take that absolutely out of story. Tim transforms the Universe into a Morgue, turning to Tim and asking him: Did you actually checked it to put in your book? He goes on talking a little bit more about his fascination of becoming. He says that there are many people who are romantic and passionate will say that change is primary and being is secondary, stating that what a nonsense verbs come before nouns when obviously verbs comes first because there is got to be something happening…Somebody jokes something and he tells to the public that at this point he wants to become very serious because the thing that really fascinates him about the Universe is spontaneity and you see this in art telling that last Thursday (stressing that is that particular one) there was a lovely conference at Warwick University about Time just like theirs, but on a small scale. A beautiful thing with a fabulous talk by a resident cellist of the quartet there and he was talking all about how they have to keep time like mad, counting desperately to keep it up to the music and this requires a tremendous tight discipline. Julian then said to him that once he heard Janet Baker talking on the radio, informing that he greatly admire her, she is one of his favourite singers, and she was asked if in a performance in one opera if she’d done something wonderful, would she try to do the same in a next performance? She said, absolutely no! You kill the magic of the now, that complete unpredictability of what is coming and there is something so tremendously strong in that sense of vitality change something new and she talked about having a rapport with the conductor and it would be completely unpredictable, perhaps the would indicate something like let’s go slightly differently and something quite magic would come out of it in such a way that this persuades him right in his core there is something very deep there and I have this Bergsonian feeling of moving forward that is very deep… and the quartet, when it comes down to all that training, hours and hours of training is actually to liberate them to have that freedom to do things spontaneously and bring things forward. He closes his argument saying that he could go into more scientific arguments, but that (what he presented) is enough to make his point in that discussion and he hopes that he had persuaded the audience to take time on that basis, i.e, becoming, which is (something) very serious and much more important than being and (he jokes) the hell with Plato, he was a dead’old dog…

Obviously I agree with Julian Barbour and it is not a coincidence that the general proposition I did matches with his comments, which came as a surprise to me, as I had already sketched everything out before listening to what he had to say.

No Point of view
Absolute space is Infinite, Unchanging and existing as a substance independently pf material objects and the spatial relations among them

Block Universe – Everything happens at the same time


The “catch” in the block universe is that since everythin is happening at the same time, you can “see” the future through premonitions.
?

To figure out where Quantum Mechanics stands against those other proposals of space time, take a look at How Space and Time Could Be a Quantum Error-Correcting Code

What is at stake?

The basic issues are whether time and space exist independently of the mind, whether they exist independently of one another, what accounts for time’s apparently unidirectional flow, whether times other than the present moment exist, and questions about the nature of identity (particularly the nature of identity over time).

Empirically we have the following to be proven, summarizing Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: (Thanks toNikolai Bachter )

What is time and is it real? Does time flow or lapse or pass? Is the past as real as the present? And what about the future? Is it open or ‘laid up’? The geometrical structure of Newtonian spacetime reflects the way we ordinarily think about time. It is the ideal backdrop to explain the three major rival theories of metaphysics of time (Savitt 2014).

In the following diagram the three dimensions of space are reduced to a two-dimensional horizontal area, while the direction of time from past via the present to the future is indicated by vertical arrows of the same length:

Have in mind that when interpreting the laws of physics, perhaps the architecture of the human brain imposes a bias towards eternalism.

Source: Savitt 2014

  • Presentism: the view that only the present exists. The past has been but is no longer. The future will come to be but is not yet. Neither the past nor the future exist (= symmetry). The present is dynamic, shifting, changing, evolving. This dynamic aspect is called temporal becoming or passage of time. In the diagram, the present is merely a thin slice of spacetime that separates the past from the present. Presentism is often referred to as Nowism. Proponent: Heraclitus, Carnap
  • Eternalism: the view that all points in time are equally real. Past, present and future are irrelevant markers in four-dimensional spacetime. Conceptually, the spatial ‘here’ is the same as the temporal ‘now’. Likewise, past and future events in one place are as real as spatially distant events at one time. The future is already ‘laid up’ (Smart 1963)? There is no objective passage of time. Spacetime is a four-dimensional unchanging block, hence the reference to the universe as ‘block universe’. The worldline of an object is tracing the path of an object in four-dimensional spacetime; it represents the object’s location in space at every instant of time. In four-dimensional spacetime, worldlines have a starting point, a direction and an end point. They are all static, immutable ingredients of a fixed block universe. Proponents: Parmenides, Smart, Einstein
  • Possibilism: the view that the past and present are both real and actual. While the past is fixed, the future is open and can be thought of as a branching tree structure of alternative possibilities (= asymmetry). In this picture, the past and the present can be seen as the trunk that grows with the passage of time as the future becomes first present and then past. An object’s worldline has a starting point in the past and grows along with the evolving space-time block with the present marking the worldliness moving endpoint.

Presentism is the most austere metaphysics of time; it is also perfectly symmetrical: both past and future are seen as equally unreal. The disadvantage is, however, that presentism does not capture the asymmetries people experience in their daily lives. Tomorrow’s lottery numbers cannot be predicted while yesterday’s are known. One can influence, at least seemingly, one’s future while one’s past is closed for revision. These asymmetries between past and future are difficult to account for in eternalism as is the conscious experience of ‘now’, the passage of time and change.

RealityPassage of TimeChangeSymmetryOntological austerityIntuitive
PresentismPresentYesYesYes*****
PossibilismPast, presentYesYesNo*****
EternalismPast, present, futureNoNo-:-**

To that we should also take into consideration the question wheter if it is Mathematically demonstrated, it does not equal to be empirially proven.

Brain’s Architecture

Dean Buonomano Professor of Behavioral Neuroscience and Neurobiology at UCLA, and author of the book Your Brain Is a Time Machine: The Neuroscience and Physics of Time. has interesting observations about those ideas of Time Space in an article from IAI which I quote:

“To date, the most powerful tool we have devised to overcome the brain’s limitations is called mathematics. Once in a while an outlier such as Einstein or Schrödinger conjures up equations that allow us to describe and predict the external world, independently of whether the human mind is capable of intuitively understanding those equations. We can plug those equations into a computer, which can then pump out predictions about what will occur when, whether or not we (or the computer) “understand” those equations.

Mathematics, however, is mostly agnostic to the interpretation of the equations of modern physics. This is particularly clear in the case of Schrödinger’s equation, which helped master the quantum world of particles that underlies much of our digital technology. No one can really claim to intuitively understand what a wavefunction actually is, or what it means for two photons two be entangled. Much as chess is beyond the grasp of Schrödinger’s cat, an intuitive understanding of quantum mechanics is probably beyond the grasp of the human brain.

The equations that comprise the laws of modern physics have proven accurate beyond any reasonable expectation, but when we interpret the equations of relativity and quantum mechanics, we often forget to take into account the inherent limitations, constraints, and biases, of the organ doing the interpreting. This point is particularly relevant in the context of what the laws of physics tell us in regard to the nature of time.”

Under eternalism time-travel is a theoretical possibility, as my past and future selves are in some sense physically real. In contrast, under presentism the notion of time travel is impossible by definition.

While there is no universally accepted view as to the nature of time, the two main views are referred to as eternalism and presentism. In its simplest form eternalism maintains that the past, present, and future all stand on equal footing in an objective physical sense. The past, present, and future all “coexist” within what is called the block universe. Under presentism, my local present moment is fundamentally and objectively different from the past and future, because the past no longer exists and the future is yet to exist. Importantly presentism is local, and distinct from the empirically disproven Newtonian notion of absolute time, in which clocks moving at different speeds will remain synchronized. While some have argued that the distinction between eternalism and presentism is a false dichotomy, the fundamental difference between them can be easily captured in the context of time travel. Under eternalism time-travel is a theoretical possibility, as my past and future selves are in some sense physically real. In contrast, under presentism the notion of time travel is impossible by definition, one cannot travel to moments that don’t exist.

It is important to note that relativity does not predict that we live in an eternalist universe, rather it allows for an eternalist universe.

One of the strongest arguments for eternalism was planted in 1908 by Herman Minkowski’s geometric interpretation of Einstein’s special theory of relativity. In it, time is represented as one axis in four-dimensional space, and movement of a clock along any of the three spatial dimensions will slow the rate at which it ticks—Minkowski bound space and time into spacetime. But any geometric representation of time inevitably corrals the brain to think about time much like space—thinking of past and future moments in relation to now, as being as real as positions to the left and right of here. Indeed geometry, as formalized by Euclid over two thousand years ago was the study of static spatial relationships, and it was likely the first field of modern science because it had the luxury of ignoring time. Einstein’s theory of general relativity further cemented the concept of spacetime into physics. But it is important to note that relativity does not predict that we live in an eternalist universe, rather it allows for an eternalist universe. Relativity makes no explicit testable predictions regarding eternalism versus presentism. Indeed, it is far from clear that there are any testable predictions that could prove or disprove eternalism or presentism (other than the emergence of a confirmed time traveler). And if advanced aliens ever came to Earth and assured us that we live in a presentist universe, I don’t think anybody would claim that proves relativity is wrong (although presentism does set boundaries on the solutions to the equations of general relativity).

While the laws of physics do not assign any special significance to the present, they are ultimately agnostic as to whether the present may be fundamentally different from the past and future. Why then, despite our clear subjective experience that the present is special, is eternalism the favored view of time in physics and philosophy? Contrary to our everyday experiences, when interpreting the laws of physics, perhaps the architecture of the human brain imposes a bias towards eternalism. Thinking about time as a dimension in which all moments are equally real, better resonates with the brain’s architecture which readily accepts that all points in space are equally real.

Our brains certainly did not evolve to understand the nature of time or the laws of the physics, but our brains did evolve to survive in a world governed by the laws of physics. Survival, of course, was not dependent on an intuitive grasp of physical laws on the quantum and cosmological scaleswhich is presumably why our intuitions epically fail on these scales. But questions pertaining to the reality of the past and future, fall squarely within the mesoscale relevant to survival. Thus, if one accepts that our subjective experiences evolved to enhance our chances of survival, our subjective experience about the passage of time and the fundamental differences between the present, past, and future, should be correlated to reality. A common counterexample to this point is our incorrect intuitions about the movement of the Earth. However, our incorrect perception that the Earth is static while the sun moves around us, pertains to the cosmological scale and is largely irrelevant to survival.

Empirical evidence from physics should always override our intuitions about the world. Yet in the case of the presentism versus eternalism debate there is actually no empirical evidence for eternalism. But there is some empirical evidence for presentism. Our brains are information processing devices designed to take measurements and make inferences about the physical world. Indeed, on the mesoscopic scale the brain does an impressive job at creating a representation of reality by measuring the physical properties of the world. It measures light, weight, temperature, movement, and time, in order to simulate the world well enough to survive in it. Our subjective experience of color or temperature, help us survive because they are correlated with reality.

I suspect that our subjective experiences regarding the nature of time also evolved because they capture some truth about the nature of the universe.

Perhaps one day objective evidence will emerge that we live in an eternalist universe, and we will understand why our subjective experiences are misleading. But until that day, we should accept our experience that the present is objectively different from the past and future as empirical evidence in favor of presentism.


Last but not least, although a disagree with the idea of a block universe as such and although I endorse Einsteins idea, I leave room to discuss some aspects of reality which might open the possibility to precognition, and other ESP (Extra Sensosrial Perception) and it’s bastard daughter of science, Parapsychology, which indirectly will give some reason to the theory and I will discuss it in the entry:

Paranormal phenomena, physics and reality

Critique of Pure Reason

Before we delve into Kant’s work, let’s discuss:

Conscience and Consciousness

In our language, Portuguese, there are not, as in English, Conscience and Consciousness, two words to designate two totally different things, but totally interconnected and interdependent.

Conscience is of a moral order, the intimate sense of being or not attending to an intimate order of what is morally good or not. Whoever acts under Conscience, has Conscientiousness also, to which it should not be confused with.

Consciousness is the quality of being alive and perceiving both inner and outer things within oneself, and my English dictionary tells me also (a) perceiving with a degree of controlled thought or observation, (b) ability to demarcate by thought, will, project or perception; (c) feel personally; (d) having the mental faculties unimpeded by sleep, weakness or stupor, being awake (e) acting or acting with critical perception, and finally (f) acting in such a way as to be perceiving, considering, evaluating, taking interest and being concerned , under strong influence of feelings or notions.

As I speak Portuguese, I consulted Lello Universal, one of the most respected encyclopedic dictionaries of our language. In the excellent entry, I transcribe the second part, as the first part is about “moral” conscience in English, although it ends up mixing it up a bit:

Encycl. Consciousness, as understood in psychology, has three characters (sic, it dates from right after the first world war…) 1 – it is the type of immediate or intuitive knowledge, in which the thinking agent and the thought object are identified 2 – is the common origin of all psychological phenomena 3 – is essentially personal and impenetrable.
A distinction is made between spontaneous consciousness, simple more or less vague information that accompanies all the acts of our psychological life, and reflected consciousness, that is, the act by which the spirit bends (flexes, curves) on itself, becoming like an object. The problem of individual consciousness is one of the most serious that philosophers have been agitating. For spiritualists, only it is reality; for the Scottish school, consciousness is distinguished from the objects it knows, to which it pre-exists; for the sensualist school it is an accumulated and ordered total of sensations.
Moral conscience is the faculty of appreciating, given to all human beings, of good and evil. Certain philosophers see in it the result of experience, individual or accumulated. Others, especially Kant, identify with reason as a practice. It is in every case the foundation of practical morality and the immediate guide of everyday life.

My Lello is from the First World War (I’m glad I didn’t throw it away…) and, from another cultural environment, “both there and here”…(expression which in Portuguese means the same for cultured and uncultered). The Age of Uncertainty was already installed but had not yet produced its fruits totally and Lello, with the impeccable competence of the Portuguese, is an excellent portrait of this.(The Age of Uncertainty is a Galbraith’s book under this title. He argues that before the first war, the social fabric was always the same, that is, a king is a king, a shoemaker is a shoemaker, a nobleman is a nobleman, etc. The end of monarchies and stable social spaces is admirably examined in this work. The Wikipedia entry is a little flawed in not mentioning this, because the uncertainty Galbraith is referring to is this).

Good’old times when in Newtonian physics the Earth was not the center of the Universe since Copernicus and everything moved with a clockwork mechanism, through eternal and immutable laws. It was only necessary that the minds applied themselves and discovered the order that God created the Universe, as had already been amply demonstrated by the thousands of holy wars and the burning of a countless number of ignorant and evil witches…

Critique of Pure Reason

Kant had already realized, in the 18th century, albeit in an obscure and practically unintelligible way, in that boringness that are his books, that the mind only perceives what it is and with that he had already anticipated the death of Science even before it reigned in splendor in the 20th century.

Science had been born a long time before him, with Descartes, but its real midwife was his fellow, Johannes Gutemberg, who would practically delimit the map of our standard consciousness of educated Western civilization.

The appearance of books and the modern University with its vast libraries and the enthronement of science, would put to sleep all other possibilities pointed out not only by witches and infidels who became Christians by force, but also pointed out by all cultures, which remained hidden and protected by the inaccessibility of this skimmed pasteurization that is our western civilization… (the Christian is jumping on the tip of my tongue…)

Before going back to this event that left behind the pre-Gutenberg state, brought back by the Internet, communications and computers, I will comment briefly, trying to separate from philosophy the only discussion that seems really valid and that even rescues the polarization, superficiality, wishful thinking which it is philosophy, with this marvel of human thought that is the “Critique of Pure Reason”, by Immanuel Kant.

For different reasons, Kant is in the same category as James Joyce, with his Ulysses and the indigestible Finnegans Wake, Les Miserables, by Victor Hugo, War and peace by Tolstoy, Brothers Karamazov by Leon Tolstoy, The Capital by Marx, who are not read, some because they are long, others for being boring, and some for being incomprehensible what makes them even more boring.

Although Kant condemned synthesis, it is what attracts me and I always try to form pictures with the essence of the idea I am examining and with his Critique of Pure Reason it will be no different.

Whenever I pored over the “Critique of Pure Reason”, I fell asleep after a few pages and was happy to see the note in his biography that the Encyclopaedia Britannica has, made by Otto Allen Bird, Emeritus Professor of Arts and Letters at Notre Dame University from Indiana, who speaks in commenting on this book that, I transcribe: “But with regard to difficulty and ease of reading and understanding, it is generally agreed that there is little to choose between these two options. Anyone opening any of the books for the first time (he refers to the two versions of the “Critique of Pure Reason”) will feel an overwhelming difficulty and oppressive impenetrable obscurity.”

Thanks Heaven I’m fully accompanied…

I did a search on the Internet and found pearls of obscurity and impenetrability, but on Wikipedia I found a perfection of synthesis and ability to get to the point, which, with some changes that I made, at my discretion, I transcribe with quotation marks, but not in italics, because I changed it enough so it’s not the same thing anymore:

“Kant’s most read and most influential book is the ‘Critique of Pure Reason‘ of 1781, which results from a remarkably simple thought experiment. He said: try to imagine something that exists outside of time and that has no extension in space. The human mind cannot produce such an idea. Time and space are fundamental forms of perception that exist as innate structures of the mind. Nothing can be perceived except through these forms, and the limits of physics are the limits of the fundamental structure of the mind. In Kant’s perspective, there is, therefore, something like innate ideas,  – ‘a priori’ knowledge of some things (space and time), since the mind has to possess these “categories” in order to understand the mass whispering of raw, uninterpreted experience that presents itself to our consciousnesses, through our senses, embedded that we are physically in reality, both external and internal. Second, it removes the real world (what Kant called the world noumenal or noumenon, and I add that number does not depend on space and time, except to make sense to reason) of the arena of human perception – since everything we perceive (through perception) is filtered through the forms of space and time, we cannot truly ‘know’ the real world. Kant called his critical philosophy ‘transcendental idealism‘. Although the exact interpretation of this phrase is contentious, one way to understand it is through Kant’s comparison in the second preface to the ‘Critique of Pure Reason‘ of his critical philosophy with Copernicus’ revolution in astronomy when he revealed that the Earth was not the center of the Universe. Kant writes: ‘Hitherto it has been assumed that all our knowledge must conform to objects. But all our attempts to extend our knowledge of objects by establishing anything ‘a priori’ about them, by means of concepts, have, on this assumption, failed. We have, therefore, tentatively, to see whether or not we are more successful in the tasks of metaphysics, if we suppose that the objects must correspond to our knowledge. Just as Copernicus revolutionized astronomy by changing the point of view, Kant’s critical philosophy asks what are the ‘a priori’ conditions for our knowledge of the world to come to fruition. Transcendental idealism describes this method of looking for the conditions of the possibility of our knowledge of the world. Kant’s ‘transcendent idealism’ must be distinguished from idealist systems. While Kant thinks that phenomena depend on the conditions of sensibility, space and time, his thesis is not equivalent to mind-dependence in the sense of idealism. For example, for certain schools of philosophy, a thing is an object only if it can be perceived. For Kant, perception is not the criterion of the existence of objects. Before, the conditions of sensibility – space and time – offer the ‘epistemological conditions’ (critical study of its knowledge), Kant had wanted to discuss metaphysical systems but discovered “the scandal of philosophy” – one cannot define the correct terms for a metaphysical system until you define the field, and you cannot define the field until you have defined the boundary of the field of physics first. In the case of Physics, in this sense it means, generically, the discussion of the perceptible world”.

Einstein in his critic of Quantum Mechanics does exactly the same reasoning Kant did and established as a precondition, which is not fulfilled in Quantum Mechanics which stays floating as a concept which cannot be established empirically.

Kant claims, in summary, that we are not able to fully know real objects and that our knowledge about real objects is the result of what we are able to think about them.

To which it should be added that these thoughts when empirically verified may or may not cease to be just concepts of our mind and perhaps it is the best possible definition of consciousness…

A paradoxical way of verifying what Kant ingeniously detected is the reaction of hallucinogenic drugs such as LSD, which especially affects the notion of space and time, eventually leading to involuntary suicide by its users, for example, throwing themselves off the top of buildings for altering or lose the notion of space and time, essential to perceive reality.

I have not yet mentioned the word that I consider key for us to proceed: reality, but before submitting to this post, I developed notions about it, which I summarize here:

What is reality?

Despite all the explanation I made in the post above, I don’t find definitions that satisfy what I feel, or perceive what reality is, neither in what I posted, nor in English dictionaries, nor in Lello, nor in Caldas Aulette, nor in the Encyclopaedia Britannica. In fact, in Caldas Aulette, the entry says: “Reality is what really exists, which has a real and not an imaginary existence”

And I add the keyword: It is not illusion.

Is there anything that is not imaginary? Or is it not an illusion? If a tree falls on Mars and there’s no one to hear it, did it make a noise? What is sound?

In the time of the dinosaurs, if a time traveler hit his foot with a hammer, or the “proto foot” of the dinosaur, would he or the dinosaur have felt pain? Or would it be “dor”? Or would it be “douleur”? Or would it be “Schmerzen”? Or would it be what since dinosaur would speak dinosaurez? Does dinosaur speak? Does it feel pain? Does he feel anything? Without the man there on Mars to hear the tree fall and the sound exist or be present with the time traveler and sympathize with the dinosaur, what is there?

Do I think, therefore I exist or “I exist because I think”?

How we develop into what

  1. Birth – senses work well, but infants show preferences for certain stimuli.
    1. Reflexes: Innate or biological behaviors that are consistent across a species. Some reflexes are temporary some are permanent.
      1. Grasping Reflex – grabbing, strong reflex

Rooting Reflex – help find source for sucking by turning the cheek to the side.

Developmental Psychology Through Childhood

What are the issues in Development?

Nature/Nurture – what accounts for the changes? Are our inherited traits due to DNA in our genes or the experiences and interaction in our environment?

Continuity/Discontinuity – Is development gradual and continuous from start to finish, or is it discontinuous with abrupt changes like a caterpillar to a butterfly?

Stability/Change – Is our personality set at an early age or do we change at each stage of development or over the years?

  1. Early Responses
    1. was touched
    2. Sucking Reflex – eating or suckling movements
    3. Moro Reflex – startle reflex, will react to embrace
    4. After 10 days, infants behavior can be conditioned. They show evidence of remembering; for example; she shows heart rate increase when hearing a new sound, but after presentation of the sound a number of times no increase in heart rate, this is called habituation.
    5. 4-6 weeks smiles at objects, at 2-3 mo. she smiles at human faces, this is called Social Smiling. May imitate human faces.
    6. This is point of communication and beginning of attachments to her/his caretakers.
  2. Perceptual Development
    1. Vision
      1. See clearly faces and objects 8-10 inches away
      2. By four months have full color vision, from physical development of visual system.
    2. Depth Perception
      1. Infants have ability to distinguish depth from about 6-14 months. Used visual cliff experiment (Walk and Gibson 1961)
      2. 5 months, some depth perception present.
    3. Object Perception
      1. 3 mo. can recognize 3-D objects.
    4. Other Senses
      1. Can hear and localize sound direction, partial to high pitched sounds
      2. Develop taste preferences for sweets
  3. Physical Development
    1. Head grows most in first 2 years
    2. Cute Response – adult perception of cuteness from proportion of size of head to body.
    3. Follows pattern of systematic maturation. From head to toe, inside to outside
    4. Note: Development is a qualitative change, while Maturation is a quantitative change from growth and heredity
    5. Motor development follows pattern of Developmental Norms
  4. Cognitive DevelopmentPIAGET – 4 stages, understanding the world requires constructing themes, mental plans for knowing called Schemas. An infant begins with only 2, sucking and grasping.
    1. Sensorimotor (0 – 2 years)
      1. Piaget believes infants capable of learning at birth, their learning is related to their development. Now behavior is purposeful and non-verbal
      2. Watson looks at it differently, they learn the same as adults, by getting pleasure from their actions.
      3. Learning a combination of sensory input and motor responses
      4. Actions are part of objects themselves, once separated, the child can use a symbol or a word in place of an action. Symbolic Substitution.
      5. Schemas – how they organize their experiences, fitting into categories, first step toward problem solving.
      6. Research suggest that infants can remember for a long period of time, tested this by using faces in experiments.
      7. Metzloff found 14 month old babies to be able to imitate faces they have seen earlier
      8. Differs from Piaget who believes not possible to imitate until 12 months old, and that memory function did not develop until 18-24 months.
      9. Object Permanence: 3 – 5 months, example of out of mind out of sight with infants, a cognitive ability to understand permanence of objects
      10. At this stage time orientation is lacking
      11. Sensorimotor Intelligence – Babies do not think abstractly
    2. Pre-Operational Stage: 2 – 7 years
      1. Child begins to think in symbols, called “Representational Thought” representing things mentally not only limited to action. “Playing make believe” & imitation some time later after stimuli. The child thinks in terms of self, and his or own feelings and applies to others. Perception based understanding.
      2. Some research suggests that compassion is present, from experiment using toddlers involved in helping situations
      3. Egocentrism: Piaget used three mountains on a model demonstrate that children always repeated their own view when asked which view the experimenter saw.
      4. Some researchers question this, suggest only an information processing problem, demonstrated with children some of whom were able to hide a Snoopy doll from view of the examiner.
    3. Concrete Operations: 7 – 11 years
      1. Conservation Concepts –
        1. Mass – using lumps of clay (bigger)
        2. Length – use lengths of yarn, etc. (longer)
        3. Numbers – use marbles, (more)
        4. Volume – beakers, graduate with water (shorter or taller)
        5. Metacognition – The ability to monitor one’s own thoughts,
          1. Younger children when asked when they have memorized a series of cards often underestimate themselves when compared to older children.
          2. Reversal – thoughts or operations, 4×2=8 and 2×4=8
          3. Example of asking a boy if he has a brother, and then asking if his brother has a brother as well
    4. Formal Operations – 11 to adult
      1. Symbolic Content, Abstraction, and Reasoning Problem Solving – suggests adults may be able to use them only in their own area of expertise, (the combination of liquids demonstration)
      2. Adolescents engage in hypothesis testing, a form of logical reasoning, thinking of how things might be and then test them.
  5. Social Development
    1. Attachment
      1. Lower animals imprint on caretaker, first organism in their visual environment, present only during critical period
      2. Harlow studied existence of attachment in Rhesus monkeys to determine if attachment was a function of a primary drive satisfaction, for example feeding. In his classic study which exposed the monkeys to surrogate mothers, one cloth covered, the other a wire frame but with a feeding device he demonstrated the monkeys response to stress and preference of mothers. Despite the wire surrogate being a source of food, the infant monkeys attached to the cloth surrogate mother.
      3. Humans differ from imprinting instead they form attachments
      4. 7 months infants form strong attachment
      5. Will recognize their parents, show definite reaction to them. At about 6 months Stranger Anxiety develops around presence of strangers
      6. At some point infants will react to their caretakers absence, called Separation Anxiety. Depends on attachment of infant to caretaker:
      7. Research by Ainsworth investigated attachment and identified differing styles, securely, ambivalent and avoidant attachment styles in children. In general terms we look at children as being securely or anxiously attached to the caretaker.
      8. Securely attached infants reacts negatively when attachment figure leaves, but responds positively when they return, often using them as a secure base for exploration.
      9. Anxiously attached infants respond ambiguously or negatively upon return of the attachment figure
  6. Parenting
    1. Over strict and controlling parents affect children, resulting in a withdrawn and distrustful child
    2. “Authoritative” parents give structure and guidance, self reliant and responsible
    3. Birth order – first higher IQ, later children social skill
  7. Resilience
    1. Can identify factors in children who cope with stress well.
    2. 0-2 yrs. social, active, cuddly and affectionate, elicit and receive a great deal of attention, resulting in affectionate bond with caretaker. Develops into independence by age two, of attempting things on own and asking for help. Appears to be unaffected by mothers employment outside the home.
    3. Early negative experiences can be compensated for by positive experiences. It appears to be an interaction effect between parent and child.
  8. Divorce
    1. Wallerstein and Kelly (1980), followed 60 families for 5 years after divorce.
    2. Found it does not predict any one single reaction, but leads to three patterns (1) 33% – adjusted quite well, happy and healthy (2) 29%- adjusted reasonably well, problems with anger or low self esteem (3) 37% – became depressed, lonely and remained unhappy
    3. Important factors included, how well adjusted before divorce, relationship with mother and father after the divorce. Parents should not remain married for sake of children, but must accept the consequences of the decision
    4. Note that until the 20th century there was no child psychology, children were treated as miniature adults, look at early portraits of children and notice there dress, pose etc..
    5.  
  9. Moral Development
    1. Piaget
      1. Before 6 yr. only concerned with concrete aspects of behavior, “moral realism”, look only at simple consequences.
    2. Freud
      1. From developmental crisis, adopts view of same sex parent during resolution of Oedipus complex. This fails to account for all the gradual changes.
    3. Social Learning Model
      1. From reinforcement for good behavior, and punishment for bad, and from moral models of adults.
      2. Socializing approach can affect the levels of moral development.
Key TermsDefinitions for Developmental Psychology
Developmental PsychologyDevelopmental psychology is the branch of psychology concerned with physical, cognitive, and social change throughout the life span.
Culturethe enduring behaviors, ideas, attitudes, and traditions shared by a large group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next
Genderthe characteristics, whether biologically or socially influenced, by which people define male and female
Rooting ReflexThe rooting reflex is the newborn’s tendency, when his or her cheek is stroked, to move toward the stimulus and begin sucking.
MaturationMaturation refers to the biological growth processes that enable orderly changes in behavior and are relatively uninfluenced by experience Example: The ability to walk depends on a certain level of neural and muscular maturation. For this reason, until the toddler’s body is physically ready to walk, practice “walking” has little effect.
SchemaIn Piaget’s theory of cognitive development, a schema is a concept or framework that organizes and interprets information.
CognitionCognition refers to the mental processes associated with thinking, knowing, and remembering.
Sensorimotor StageIn Piaget’s theory of cognitive stages, the sensorimotor stage lasts from birth to about age 2. During this stage, infants gain knowledge of the world through their senses and their motor activities.
Object PermanenceObject permanence, which develops during the sensorimotor stage, is the awareness that things do not cease to exist when they are out of sight.
EgocentrismIn Piaget’s theory, Egocentrism refers to the difficulty that preoperational children have in considering another’s viewpoint. “Ego”means “self,” and “centrism” indicates “in the center”; the preoperational child is “self-centered.”
Preoperational StageIn Piaget’s theory, the preoperational stage lasts from about 2 to 6 or 7 years of age. During this stage language development is rapid, but the child lacks logical reasoning.
ConservationConservation is the principle that properties such as number, volume, and mass remain the same despite changes in the forms of objects; it is acquired during the concrete operational stage.
Concrete Operational StageDuring the concrete operational stage, lasting from about ages 6 or 7 to 11, children can think logically about concrete events and objects.
Formal Operational StageIn Piaget’s theory, the formal operational stage normally begins about age 12. During this stage people begin to think logically about abstract concepts. Operations are mental transformations. Preoperational children, who lack the ability to perform transformations, are “before” this developmental milestone. Concrete operational children can operate on real, or concrete, objects. Formal operational children can perform logical transformations on abstract concepts.
Stranger AnxietyStranger anxiety is the fear of strangers that infants begin to display at about 8 months of age.
AttachmentAttachment refers to the process by which young children develop closeness to a caregiver
Critical PeriodA critical period is an optimal period shortly after birth during which an organism must be exposed to certain experiences or influences if it is to develop properly.
ImprintingImprinting is the process by which certain animals form attachments early in life, usually during a limited critical period.
TemperamentTemperament refers to the rudiments of personality and a child’s characteristic emotional reactivity and intensity. Temperament is a trait that is strongly linked to heredity.
Basic TrustAccording to Erikson, basic trust is a sense that the world is predictable and trustworthy — a concept that infants form if their needs are met by responsive caregiving.
IntimacyIn Erikson’s theory, intimacy, or the ability to establish close, loving relationships, is the primary task of late adolescence and early adulthood.
Cross-sectional StudyIn a cross-sectional study, people of different ages are tested at

the same time.
Longitudinal StudyIn a longitudinal study, the same people are tested and retested over a period of years.
Social ClockThe social clock refers to the culturally preferred timing of life events, such as leaving home, marrying, having children, and retiring.
Identical TwinsIdentical twins develop from a single fertilized egg that splits in two and therefore are genetically identical.
Fraternal TwinsFraternal twins develop from two separate eggs fertilized by different sperm and therefore are no more genetically similar than ordinary siblings.

God does not play dice with the Universe

Physical Reality in the eyes of Einstein and under Quantum Mechanics

The strife about whether reality in the last analysis is deterministic or random has in the famous phrase of Einstein “God does not play dice with the Universe” the essence of what is at stake. The dispute between Einstein and Schrodinger, who was published and widely documented, places them as the main actors of this contention. But there are other actors and specially one, Max Born, who also exchanged letters with Einstein about the subject which for one of those things, never was quite well recognized and can be seen at The Root of All Evil. The objections Einstein had against the statistical nature of the Quantum Physics predictions were the following:

Einstein had several objections to the statistical nature of quantum mechanics predictions, particularly as encapsulated in the Copenhagen interpretation, which was one of the prevailing interpretations of quantum mechanics during his time. Some of his main objections included:

  1. God does not play dice“: Einstein famously expressed his discomfort with the idea that fundamental physical processes, such as the behavior of subatomic particles, could be inherently probabilistic. He believed that there must be underlying deterministic laws governing the behavior of particles, even at the quantum level.
  2. The incompleteness of quantum mechanics: Einstein was troubled by what he perceived as the incomplete nature of quantum mechanics. He argued that the theory did not provide a complete description of physical reality and that it relied too heavily on statistical probabilities rather than offering a deterministic account of particle behavior.
  3. Spooky action at a distance“: Einstein, along with collaborators Boris Podolsky and Nathan Rosen, formulated the famous EPR paradox to highlight what they saw as the nonlocality inherent in quantum mechanics. They argued that the theory seemed to allow for instantaneous correlations between spatially separated particles, which contradicted Einstein’s theory of relativity and raised questions about causality.

Einstein’s objections to the statistical nature of quantum mechanics were rooted in his philosophical and scientific beliefs about the nature of reality, determinism, and causality. While his objections did not undermine the empirical success of quantum mechanics, they sparked important debates and led to further developments in our understanding of the foundations of quantum theory.

Quantum mechanics arose gradually from theories to explain observations which could not be reconciled with classical physics, such as Max Planck‘s solution in 1900 to the black-body radiation problem, and the correspondence between energy and frequency in Albert Einstein‘s 1905 paper which explained the photoelectric effect. These early attempts to understand microscopic phenomena, now known as the “old quantum theory, led to the full development of quantum mechanics in the mid-1920s by Niels BohrErwin SchrödingerWerner HeisenbergMax BornPaul Dirac and others. The modern theory is formulated in various specially developed mathematical formalisms. In one of them, a mathematical entity called the wave function provides information, in the form of probability amplitudes, about what measurements of a particle’s energy, momentum, and other physical properties may yield.

Under Born, Göttingen (details at the Wikipedia entry) became one of the world’s foremost centres for physics. In 1925, Born and Werner Heisenberg formulated the matrix mechanics representation of quantum mechanics. The following year, he formulated the now-standard interpretation of the probability density function for ψ*ψ in the Schrödinger equation, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1954. His influence extended far beyond his own research. Max DelbrückSiegfried FlüggeFriedrich HundPascual JordanMaria Goeppert-MayerLothar Wolfgang NordheimRobert Oppenheimer, and Victor Weisskopf all received their PhD degrees under Born at Göttingen, and his assistants included Enrico Fermi, Werner Heisenberg, Gerhard Herzberg, Friedrich Hund, Pascual Jordan, Wolfgang PauliLéon RosenfeldEdward Teller, and Eugene Wigner.

Born would win the 1954 Nobel Prize in Physics for his “fundamental research in quantum mechanics, especially in the statistical interpretation of the wave function“.[1]

 In his Nobel lecture he reflected on the philosophical implications of his work:

“I believe that ideas such as absolute certitude, absolute exactness, final truth, etc. are figments of the imagination which should not be admissible in any field of science. On the other hand, any assertion of probability is either right or wrong from the standpoint of the theory on which it is based. This loosening of thinking (Lockerung des Denkens) seems to me to be the greatest blessing which modern science has given to us. For the belief in a single truth and in being the possessor thereof is the root cause of all evil in the world.”

He exchanged letters with Einstein telling him about his interpretation long before Einstein would have his famous dispute with the letter which I introduce the subject with the other side opposite to Born and those who had the same idea and that Einstein contradicted with the famous phrase, which I explore in detail.

In a way perhaps somewhat long and perhaps confusing, the conclusion I arrived and that I want readers to arrive, was that Max Born is right, not only objectively from the mathematical point of view, but by the very nature as we form Our point of view, which I present in detail.

Reality and Randomness

On the other hand, I also believe that it is impossible to achieve true randomness in reality, only in theory and There is no proof (in the mathematical sense) of real randomness. I discuss this issue separately in the posting Is Randomness for Real?

In a letter that Albert Einstein wrote in 1945, the famous physicist sketched two diagrams demonstrating a novel approach to the thought experiment called the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox. (Image credit: Christie’s Images LTD. 2019)

The Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox (EPR paradox) is a thought experiment (hypothetical situation in which a hypothesis, theory or principle is laid out for the purpose of thinking through its consequences) proposed by physicists Albert EinsteinBoris Podolsky and Nathan Rosen (EPR), with which they argued that the description of physical reality provided by quantum mechanics was incomplete.

The discussion can be seen in detail at Wikipedia, from where I quote and add the following, which is embedded and taken for granted, but for the discussion I have in mind it is needed to be clarified:

René Descartes gave us the basic map which enabled Galileo to format Science in the way it would become the gold standard. He also is the author of an axiom which we are going to need here: Cogito ergo sum (I think therefore I am).

Before discussing the implications of these two contributions of Descartes, let’s summarize the quest between Einstein and Quantum Mechanics:  

Niels Bohr replied that it was a fallacy, as it can be seen in detail at Wikipedia, and Einstein replied that the crucial part of the argument was the demonstration of nonlocality, where the choice of measurement done in particle A, either position or momentum, would lead to two different quantum states of particle B. He argued that, because of locality, the real state of particle B couldn’t depend on which kind of measurement was done in A, and therefore the quantum states cannot be in one-to-one correspondence with the real states.

Either Bohr and Einstein were reacting to what their sensorium was telling them, obviously with the benefit of a first rate mind but is an excellent example to understand how we think, although not as deeply or creatively or as intelligent as it was their case. 

Cogito,  ergo sum. I think, therefore I am.

What is to think?

It is direct one’s mind toward someone or something; use one’s mind actively to form connected ideas to have a particular opinion, belief, or idea about someone or something.

How do we do it?

Empirically or conceptually.

A concept is the object of a thought, not something that is present to the senses. The word “empirical” means “gained through experience.” Scientific experiments and observation give rise to empirical data. Scientific theories that organize the data are conceptual but can also be the product of imagination and become scientific after evidence by confirmation empirically as it is clearly the case of Relativity and Quantum Mechanics.

Both scientists were aiming to figure out reality which is the object of our discussion.

How we assess reality empirically?

Through our senses, which are: Sight, Sound, Smell, Taste, and Touch: How the Human Body Receives Sensory Information.

Each sense functions through:

  1. interface or sensory tips;
  2. conduction link from the interface to the brain,
  3. physical brain and, more importantly,
  4. how the involved brain “processes” the stimulus, based on
  5. in what has been learned, is stored, is managed and the
  6. Idiosyncrasy, or intelligence, of the bearer of the whole set

The sensory tips for each sense are:

  • Sight Main organ involved: Eye
  • Sound Main organ involved: Ears
  • Smell Main organ involved: Nose
  • Taste and Main organ involved: Tongue
  • Touch Main organ involved: Fingers

You can see a more detailed explanation at

Sensory and perceptual processes

You can have for each sense something like that, but it is not the objective here to discuss that and let’s see how it looks such kind of definition for consciouness and reality perception.

Psychologists define consciousness as our awareness of ourselves and our environment. Consciousness includes not only alert wakefulness, but also altered states, such as sleep and dreaming, daydreams, and states induced by hypnosis and drugs.

States of consciouness

Nature and nurture of behavior

Brain Physiology for dummies

How we develop into what

.

How we assess reality conceptually?

From Physics the example is the  Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox (EPR paradox), a thought experiment ( or a concept in a hypothetical situation in which a hypothesis, theory or principle is laid out for the purpose of thinking through its consequences) proposed by physicists Albert EinsteinBoris Podolsky and Nathan Rosen (EPR), with which they argued that the description of physical reality provided by quantum mechanics was incomplete.

From Philosophy, Critique of Pure Reason of Immanuel Kant is one of the best concepts available to put the subject in perspective.

How do we assess the reality of our sensorium to perceive reality?

The best notion of empirical analysis of psychology is the Experimental Psichology, based on what is generally known as “Hard Science”, i.e. “how it works” physically or physiologically, including taking into account physics, chemistry, electricity and whatever is available. Experimental Psychology is opposed to Traditional Psychology, “soft science”, which is the daughter of Philosophy, especially the one that creates “Systems”, based on assumptions for what “seems” to be evidence of what is ahead. The best example of soft science in psychology is Psychoanalysis and the best example of hard science in psychology is Neuropsychology. Psychoanalysis is an old acquaintance and I did a blog site where I discuss it extensively. I didn’t created something equivalent for the explanation of Neuropsychology, but the two examples above, if done for all the senses and the main concerns involved would be equivalent. Actually I did it for Perception and sound, especially in terms of Sensation and what you hear, but it is in Portuguese and eventually I will translate it. Theories of Knowledge, Intelligence, States of Consciousness or Alert should also be touched and eventually I will, but for the purpose of Reality Perception, Drugs are specially indicated, since you can paradoxically understand what is at stake when you mess with it.

Reality perception changes wheter if you are in a visual or oral culture

Marshall McLuhan’s essence is to explore how visual culture and oral culture define our perception of reality and add to it the effect which technology, especially computers, television, the Internet and the smart phone, which despite having emerged after his demise, not only were they foreseen by him, but they can be understood according to his conceptions.

In addition to the possibilities listed in the post

Other possibilities of perception on what we see

check also

 Why visual acoustic cultures do not have perspective

I call special attention to the case of the Africans and the chicken because, to my knowledge it is the most powerful evidence of the difference between oral culture and print culture I came across.  

I call also special atention to the MGM motion picture “At First Sight”, which was based on the real-life story of Shirl Jennings, which in the movie is called Virgil, whose sight was restored after forty years of blindness. Val Kilmer and Mira Sorvino portrayed the main characters.

What happens when an adult who has been blind since childhood suddenly regains his sight?

The experience of Virgil, a 50-year-old man who has regained his sight after being blind 45 years raises questions about perception that has haunted philosophers and scientists for centuries.

This is very difficult to understand, and for that, see the sequence at the 58th minute of the movie, when he regains his sight after surgery, shown at 61:08, in this movie, when Virgil seeing (but not knowing what is on the street, in the middle of cars and traffic, going through a door and into a building, even seeing the glass door and the movement of cars, can’t relate to what that means, getting literally lost, including almost injured, until he closes his eyes and is located by touch and hearing, perceiveing in his old blind fashion, where he is and how he is, as he did when he was blind. He seeks a therapist to learn to see and understand what it is and what to do with it.

The notions exposed here should be compare with the notions exposed at “Time subjectively” and both are the frame to the notion of “Block Universe”.

Last but not least, remember that when it comes to understanding the nature of the universe, we should point out that the human brain was optimized to survive and reproduce in an environment we outgrew long ago, not to decipher the laws of nature. Since we imagine ourselves as the absolute kings of creation it is easier to think about these limitations with our fellow animals.

To that it should also be added that  when interpreting the laws of physics, perhaps the architecture of the human brain imposes a bias towards eternalism.

Conscience and Consciousness and animals

Perhaps this should be a separate entry, but as it is a piece of a major puzzle and not the main focus, I will summarize it here unexplained psychic powers of animals, to whom, we belong to the same category and what is found on them, is also found on us, or is it the other way around?

Remember that Descartes, with his quintessential Cogito, ergo sum, I think, therefore I exist, denied that hability to the animals following a long religious tradition, specially in the Abrahamic religions, which I do not have intention to discuss, but only point out that it is not the case, as it is analysed in the excellente entry of Wikipedia: Animal consciousness from which I quote the Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness and tell the following stories from my experience:

1-Rats

I once cornered a mouse in a corner of my yard, with a broom in hand and before attacking him, to my surprise he dropped dead, probably with a heart attack. How was he aware that he could or would die? Or rather, what happened to the “alert state” or his “rat consciousness” that provoked something as blunt as death? I remember here a curious thing that  Freud’s entire arsenal is based on Libido, which is the motivating and generating energy of life, especially motivation and which has or would have as a counterpart Thanatos, the death instinct. There’s nothing about it that spans more than a page in his entire work. All you have to do is load the complete works on your computer, which I did, and do a search on Thanatos or death instinct and it’s very easy to confirm. This mouse had an unbearable flaw for dying prematurely or without physical collapse, the only really valid one. Scientifically, if fright killed, both human and animal species would already have disappeared from the face of the Earth… the heart stops because it is defective, not because the fright created the impossibility of functioning… This mouse already suffered from the heart and the fright evidenced this and his perception did the rest…

2-Dogs

In the 70’s we came and go to the United States, in the several times we went to live there. When a trip approached, we didn’t reveal anything to the children, for obvious reasons, leaving everything close to the event. From the dogs we had, the one that lasted the longest was a mongrel she dog bitch, Neguinha, who lasted from 81 to 93. Well, on those ocasions, weeks before we left, without the children noticing, neguinha clearly understood that she would be abandoned and completely changed her behavior, going into depression. How did she perceive the change that was going to occur?

This same dog died in a very painful way in 93. I was already in the United States for some time, I arranged with my wife for us to meet at JFK airport gate. When I saw her and looked at her expression, I instantly asked: “Who died and why you didn’t they tell me?” We went to the usual breakfast spot after the trip towards where we had lived and were going to visit, in a restaurant called Panther, whose name will never be forgotten. Over there, while having breakfast, we both cried in the midst of those confused gringos and all that snow which was pouring, while my wife told me the last moments of Neguinha. My wife reported that Neguinha had serious heart problems and refused to die and had realized that my wife was going to travel far away. My wife convinced her to die by talking to her on her lap and explaining what was happening. She died in her arms peacefully after much conversation.
My youngest son is totally into rationality and has an excellent mind for things involving science, having subsequently graduated in Computer Engineering.
In other words, he has absolutely nothing to do with the paranormal. Some time after the dog died, he dreamed that Neguinha had reincarnated in Australia, which he told us happily, as he was very young (7 or 8 years old) which released everyone’s heavy feeling for the loss.

I ask: all this blah blah blah I’ve written so far, where is it some explanation for that?

How did I see the death of a loved one in my wife’s expression?

How was Neguinha aware that we would travel away?

Why did Neguinha agree to die?

Why hasn’t the name Panther left our mind, even today, almost 50 years later?

How did the dream of reincarnation in Australia release everyone’s feeling since on a conscious level none of us believe in reincarnation, etc.?

I would have several other stories with dogs, but I think it’s enough for those who like to think they know what’s good for orientation in reality through our “Consciousness” system…

3 – Tigers

In a California zoo, a tigress had 3 cubs, but they were premature and sick, and they died soon. The tigress then began to show signs of depression. The vets knew that the loss of the puppies was the reason for the problem, and they decided to try to find other puppies for her to raise and cheer up. After checking several zoos across the country, they didn’t find any cub tigers available.
The vets then decided to try something different, which had never been done before: sometimes a female takes care of puppies of animals of other species. The only orphans they were able to locate were little pigs, who were wrapped in tiger skins and placed next to the mother tiger. Check out the photos: she IS a tigress, but her heart is of a mother.

4-Penguins

Each winter in Antarctica, the most uninhabitable place on Earth, thousands of Emperor Penguins leave the safety of the ocean and climb onto the frozen land, intending to begin a long journey inland. In single file, the penguins march to the species’ traditional breeding ground. The females remain in place only as long as necessary for breeding, starting shortly after their return journey across 200 kilometers of ice towards the sea full of fish. Male emperors remain to guard and hatch the eggs. After 4 months, in which the males eat nothing, the eggs begin to break and the young are born. However, they can only survive for 48 hours without food, depending on the return of female emperors, who need to bring food from the ocean.

Let’s proceed:

Is Randomness for Real?

Where is discussed the implications of free will

Critique of Pure Reason

A classic from Kant

Russian Astronauts, Trivia, etc

As it can be seen at

Omega Was Not The First Watch In Space

Prior to its official designation, there have been other watches worn in space. Despite the Omega being chosen by Schirra in 1962, the first watch to be worn in space was a Poljot, which is also known as a Sekonda or a Strela. It was worn on June 12, 1965, by Russian Cosmonaut Alexi Leonov who became the first astronaut ever to make a space walk. The watch, a mechanical two register chrono with a 45-minute totalizer and a continuously running second hand would become the official watch of the Russian space program for 20 years. It was officially retired in 1979 and succeeded by the Russian Speedmaster which lost it’s title in 1994. For the last 22 years, Fortis has been the official watch of Russian cosmonauts.

Perhaps Cosmonauts, I found later…

I have covered already the following:

Why an Astronaut needs a wrist watch?

How and why NASA selected Omega Speedmaster for the astronauts?

Russian Astronauts and Trivia

A visual walkthrough from Strella Watches where Russian astronauts watches shows up.

From ISSUU Watches, which does not mention the author, I extract, compile and quote:

The first ever watch to be sent into space was a Russian “Pobeda” (actually a Sturmanskie) watch from the Pedrodvorets Watch Factory. It was sent on a single orbit flight on the spaceship Korabl-Sputinik 4 on March 9th, 1961. There was a dummy cosmonaut and a dog. A watch had been attached without authorisation to the wrist of Chernuchka, a dog that successfully did exactly the same trip as Yuri Gagarin, with exactly the same rocket and equipment, just a month before Gagarin’s flight on 12 April same year, 1961. This watch belonged to the Soviet aerospace medical researcher Dr. Abraham Genin, who when visiting the Smithsonian Aerospace Museum told the story. Dr. Genin Pobeda Watch was awarded to him while in the military, and considering the watch’s resilience to all his abuse including swimming with it, he strapped it to the dog. 

Nowadays, the number one brand russian watch is Poljot and at their site the say, and I quote:

The roots of the watch brand “Poljot-International” date back to the 1930s, when the “First State Watch Factory” was founded in Moscow. In 1961, after the flight of the first citizen of the earth, Yuri Gagarin, into space, the watches produced by the factory were given the designation “Poljot” (the flight).

Actually, Yuri Gagarin wore a Sturmanskie (“navigator”) wrist watch manufactured at the First Moscow Factory. After that and since 1964, the watches of the First Moscow Factory have been marked by the trademark “Poljot” (the flight) as a tribute to the space trips its watches have accomplished.

 In the late 70’s Poljot launched a new chrono movement, the 3133, with a 23 jewel movement and manual winding (with a 43 hour reserve), which was a modified Russian version of the Swiss Valjoux 7734 of the early 70’s. This Poljot has been taken into space by astronauts from Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine. On the arm of Valeriy Polyakov, a Poljot 3133 chronograph movement based watch set a space record for the longest space flight in history.  

Poljot 3133

Since 1994 Fortis is the exclusive supplier for manned space missions authorized by the Russian Federal Space Agency. China National Space Administration (CNSA) astronauts wear the Fiyta Space Watches. At BaselWorld, 2008, Seiko announced the creation of the first watch ever designed specifically for a space walk, the Spring Drive Spacewalk. Timex Datalink is flight certified by NASA for space missions and is one of the watches qualified by NASA for space travel. The Casio G-Shock DW-5600C and 5600E, DW 6900 and DW 5900 are also Flight Qualified for NASA for space travel.

NASA before Omega Seamaster choice

On February 20, 1962, John H. Glenn, Jr., became the first American to orbit Earth. An Atlas launch vehicle propelled a Mercury spacecraft into Earth orbit and enabled Glenn to circle Earth three times. The flight lasted a total of 4 hours, 55 minutes, and 23 seconds before the Friendship 7 spacecraft splashed down in the ocean. He was wearing a Heuer Stopwatch.

Rolex

David Boettcher tells us:

Hans Wilsdorf and Rolex

Hans Wilsdorf, with financial help from his brother-in-law Alfred Davis, founded the watch importing and distribution firm of Wilsdorf & Davis in London in 1905. Wilsdorf was convinced that the wristwatch was the way of the future, and soon contracted the firm of Hermann Aegler to manufacture wristwatchs for him. Wilsdorf was a perfectionist, and never ceased pressing Aegler to improve the timekeeping of the watches they made for him, which he now insisted be branded “Rolex” – a name Wilsdorf had invented.

In 1910 Aegler submitted a Rolex wristwatch to the Bienne testing station. It received a First Class certificate and thus became the first wristwatch to be officially certified as a chronometer in Switzerland. On July 15th 1914, a Rolex wristwatch received a Class A precision certificate from the Kew Observatory in Greenwich, which had previously only been achieved by marine chronometers. Wilsdorf remarked that this was a “red letter day” in the development of his firm, which he would never forget. The ability of a wristwatch to maintain accurate time keeping could no longer be be held in any doubt. You can read more about Hans Wilsdorf and the Rolex story on my Rolex page.

How Rolex managed to be number one without beeing that precise or that reliable?

At the end of the day although Rolex certifies each of its watches to the COSC institute for Chronometer Certification, it provides a guaranteed acuracy around some 5 seconds a day while quartz technology watches do that in terms of 5 seconds a year…

As far as reliability, it is very good to dive up to 300 meter, althouh it is humanly very unlikely, experienced divers can use a Swiss timepiece, but the majority are more likely to pick up a digital dive watch from Suunto or a diving computer from Aqualung or Shearwater.

Not to mention that as of May 2019, the record for the deepest normally functioning experimental diving watch is held by the Omega Seamaster Planet Ocean Ultra Deep Professional after reaching a (revised) depth of 10,925 m (35,843 ft) ±4 m (13 ft) of seawater during a descent to the bottom of the “Eastern Pool” of the Challenger Deep.

 And Rolex failed at NASA tests when it was looking for a chronograph for its astronauts.

The fact is that Rolex is the Gold Standard in mechanical watches and as a luxury item as such and not only outsells Omega, selling almost twice as much, but does it on average selling its watches for double the price Omega does as you can see at the following table.

How is that possible?

Style is the name of the game and it is done with the heart and not with rational logical thinking…

As far as the lack of accuracy, take a look on a good approach to calm the hearts of Rolex owners.

As far as the COSC certificates, take a look at: Meaningful test or marketing gimmick?

As far as more people willing to pay more for a Rolex, it beats the hell out of me why and probably it is very difficult if not impossible to know why, but I would risk the following:

If you google: What tickles the heart of a rolex buyer? some answers will be:

What is so special about Rolex watches?

OYSTERSTEEL. A Rolex watch must work perfectly and maintain its beauty even in the harshest environments. That is why Rolex uses Oystersteel, a steel alloy specific to the brand. Oystersteel belongs to the 904L steel family, which is particularly resistant to corrosion and acquires an exceptional sheen when polished.

What does Rolex symbolize?

Rolex watches have been worn by a number of the most influential people in the world. … On the other hand, popular Rolex sports watches like the Rolex Submariner and the Cosmograph Daytona have become traditional symbols of success, security, and masculinity.

Where are the buyers of Rolex Watches?

Note that the report opens saying that Miami is the place more likely people will sport a Rolex… and closes buy informing that it is also the place to buy pre loved Rolexes…

How Rolex found out, established a Rolex score and how it sees it

From a forum about: Rational vs Emotion/Heart. How do you decide on buying a watch?

I selected the following that says it all:

“What’s rational about buying a $5k plus diamond ring? What’s rational about buying a $4k louis vuiton bag. What’s rational about a set of $1000 women’s pumps (shoes) or a $2k suit. Whats rational about a $400,000 Bentley or RR? What’s rational about a 10,000 sq.ft. house. Luxury has never been about Rational behavior. When you look at the above, expensive watches don’t look so bad in the grand scheme do they. I asked my wife, what would she prefer a $7k LV bag or another watch. She being smart answered watch, but I bet most women would have answered bag. Watches are truly the only real jewelry men wear and they are useful jewelry so why not make it something nice.”

The best reconciliation:

“A few months ago I walked past a Rolex AD inside a shopping center and a white explorer ii 216570 on display at the window caught my eye. I inquired about pricing and a possible discount, no discounts on SS models so 8.7k after taxes was their price. Not too long ago I thought it was ludicrous (irrational) to spend over 1.5k on any watch, but couldn’t stop thinking about that explorer. I ended up finding a nice (mint) used polar 216570 with box/paperwork a few days ago for a lot less than what the AD wanted for a BNIB. The way I see it I would’ve spent the money on other things and at the end would’ve never know or remembered where that $$ went. To me buying any watch is far from trying to impress, buying status symbols, etc. It’s about spending your hard earned $$ to own, wear, and enjoy what you worked hard for. I still open my watch box to stare at my inexpensive pieces, I still quite enjoy and wear them as well.”

Message and Muscle: An Interview with Swatch Titan Nicolas Hayek

Veja em Português

by  Bill Taylor From the Magazine (March–April 1993)

Nicolas G. Hayek is a rare phenomenon in Europe—a genuine business celebrity. In his home country of Switzerland, and increasingly across the continent, he is an engaging presence in newspapers and magazines and on television talk shows. Hayek, 64, has earned his fame. He and his colleagues at the Swiss Corporation for Microelectronics and Watchmaking (SMH) have engineered one of the most spectacular industrial comebacks in the world—the revitalization of the Swiss watch industry.

The dimensions of the turnaround are staggering. SMH took shape in 1983 when Hayek recommended that Switzerland’s banks merge the country’s two giant (and insolvent) watch manufacturers. That year, the new company generated revenues of SFr1.5 billion ($1.1 billion) and lost SFr173 million ($124 million). Last year, SMH generated revenue of about SFr3 billion ($2.1 billion) and posted profits of more than SFr400 million ($286 million).

Nicolas Hayek has been involved with SMH from the beginning. In the early 1980s, the banks named Hayek their chief adviser on the troubled watch industry. He was already well-known as the founder and CEO of Hayek Engineering, a Zurich-based consulting firm that is something of a cross between Arthur D. Little and McKinsey & Company. In 1985, the banks proposed that Hayek buy a controlling equity stake in SMH. He assembled a group of investors, retained the single largest stake, and became CEO.

The original investors paid SFr100 per share. Today SMH trades at SFr1,500 per share. Its market value exceeds SFr4.9 billion ($3.5 billion). Hayek’s personal stake is worth roughly SFr1 billion ($700 million).

But SMH is more than a turnaround story. It is a case study of Hayek’s management philosophy and strategic thinking, both of which are strikingly at odds with the prevailing wisdom about how companies should compete in the new economy.

Conventional wisdom suggests that global companies should become “stateless.” They should seek low-cost production wherever they can find it and build operations in many national markets. Yet SMH is committed to its Swiss home base. The bulk of its technology, people, and production remain anchored in the towns and villages around the Jura mountains on Switzerland’s border with France—the traditional heart of Swiss watchmaking.

Companies also hear endless advice to become niche players by focusing on ever more- narrow market segments. But SMH is everywhere. Its brash and playful Swatch (whose basic models sell for $40) has become a pop-culture phenomenon. Last year, SMH sold an estimated 27 million Swatches. The company’s flagship brand on the high end is Omega, whose models retail for anywhere between $700 and $20,000.

Watches in the hotly competitive middle segment sell for between $75 and $350. This is where SMH battles most directly with Seiko and Citizen, the two Japanese giants. SMH recently acquired Blancpain, a niche producer of luxury mechanical watches that retail for $200,000 and higher. SMH has even extended its presence in watches to new product categories such as telecommunications.

Finally, managers increasingly believe they should dismember their companies and retain only those core activities crucial to success. But SMH is a vertically integrated fortress. It assembles all the watches it sells, and it builds most of the components for the watches it assembles.

William Taylor, former HBR associate editor, conducted the interview at the Zurich headquarters of Hayek Engineering and at SMH headquarters in Biel.

HBR: The revitalization of SMH has generated tremendous attention across Europe. What are the most important lessons?

Nicolas Hayek: There are two main lessons. First, it is possible to build high-quality, high-value, mass-market consumer products in high-wage countries at low cost. Notice I said build, not just design and sell. A Swatch retails for 50 francs in Switzerland and $40 in the United States. The price has not changed in ten years. Yet we build all of our Swatches in Switzerland—where the most junior secretary earns more than the most senior engineer in Thailand or Malaysia.

In fact, it’s not just possible to build mass-market products in countries like Switzerland. It’s mandatory. This is a principle I am passionate about—and a principle business leaders in the United States and Europe don’t take seriously enough. We are all global companies competing in global markets. But that does not mean we owe no allegiance to our own societies and cultures.

Not so long ago, I was in the United States for a meeting with the CEO of one of your big companies. We were discussing a joint venture to produce a new product we had developed. He saw what the product could do, he reviewed the design, and he got very excited: “Great, we’ll make it in Singapore.” His people had done no research or calculations at all. It was a reflex. I said, “No, we’ll make it in Alabama.”

But I’m sure you understand the reasoning. In a global economy, companies must source wherever they can get the best people at the lowest cost. Asia is bursting with smart, well-trained workers and engineers. How can you afford not to look there for manufacturing?

We must build where we live. When a country loses the know-how and expertise to manufacture things, it loses its capacity to create wealth—its financial independence. When it loses its financial independence, it starts to lose political sovereignty.

We have to change that reflex: the instinctive reaction that if a company has a mass-market consumer product, the only place to build it is Asia or Mexico. CEOs must say to their people: “We will build this product in our country at a lower cost and with higher quality than anywhere else in the world.” Then they have to figure out how to do it.

We do this all the time. We agree on the performance specifications of a new product—a watch, a pager, a telephone. Then we assemble a project team. We present the team with some target economics: this is how much the product can sell for, not one penny more; this is the margin we need to support advertising, promotion, and so on. Thus these are the costs we can afford. Now go design a product and a production system that allows us to build it at those costs—in Switzerland.

“If labor is less than 10% of costs, there’s nothing to stop us from building a product in the most expensive country in the world.”

That means focusing on labor. If we can design a manufacturing process in which direct labor accounts for less than 10% of total costs, there is nothing to stop us from building a product in Switzerland, the most expensive country in the world. Nothing.

But you know consumer markets are fiercely competitive. How can you absorb even a modest cost disadvantage?

This is not commodity competition. Let’s say you have three similar watches. One says “Made in Japan” and sells for $100. Another says “Made in Switzerland” and sells for $110. A third says “Made in Hong Kong” and sells for $90. Which watch will consumers prefer? In Europe, between 75% and 95% of all consumers will prefer the Swiss watch—in spite of the 10% premium. In the United States, depending on which region you are talking about, between 51% and 75% of all consumers will prefer the Swiss watch. Only in Japan itself will a majority of consumers prefer the Japanese watch to the Swiss watch.

What does that mean? If you have a manufacturing process in which direct labor is less than 10% of total costs, you have eliminated those costs from the competitive equation. When we created SMH, our direct-labor costs, on average, were more than 30% of total costs. Today they are well below 10%. If we paid our workers full salaries and the Japanese paid their workers nothing, we could still compete.

This same logic applies beyond watches. CEOs must understand this point. If you can design a system in which direct-labor costs are less than 10% of total costs, it is cheaper to build mass-market consumer products in the United States than in Taiwan or Mexico.

What’s the second lesson of SMH’s comeback?

It’s related to the first. You can build mass-market products in countries like Switzerland or the United States only if you embrace the fantasy and imagination of your childhood and youth. Everywhere children believe in dreams. And they ask the same question: Why? Why does something work a certain way? Why do we behave in certain ways? We ask ourselves those questions every day.

People may laugh—the CEO of a huge Swiss company talking about fantasy. But that’s the real secret behind what we have done. It’s an unusual attitude for Switzerland—and for Europe. Too many of Europe’s large institutions—companies, governments, unions—are as rigid as prisons. They are all steel and cement and rules. We kill too many good ideas by rejecting them without thinking about them, by laughing at them.

Ten years ago, the people on the original Swatch team asked a crazy question: Why can’t we design a striking, low-cost, high-quality watch and build it in Switzerland? The bankers were skeptical. A few suppliers refused to sell us parts. They said we would ruin the industry with this crazy product. But the team overcame the resistance and got the job done.

The Swatch is based on radical innovations in design, automation, and assembly, as well as in marketing and communications. One of our plants in Grenchen makes up to 35,000 Swatches and millions of components a day. From midnight until 8 a.m., it runs practically without human intervention. Swatch is a triumph of engineering. But it is really a triumph of imagination. If you combine powerful technology with fantasy, you create something very distinct.

Let’s go back to the beginning of SMH—the dark days—and work forward to the two main lessons. It’s the early 1980s. Swiss watchmaking is on the brink. The banks call you in. What do you find?

A chaotic jungle. An absolute mess. Most people who analyze the destruction of the Swiss watch industry in the 1970s emphasize price and technology. They point to the arrival of hundreds of millions of cheap quartz watches from Japan and Hong Kong and our decision to ignore quartz, a technology we invented. But we had huge problems beyond technology. There were problems of strategy, structure, management.

The two companies that became SMH were the flagships of the Swiss industry. One was SSIH, a company that had Swiss-French origins. Omega was the crown jewel of SSIH. Up until the early 1970s, Omega was one of Switzerland’s most prestigious brands—more prestigious than even Rolex. But Omega was so successful for so long that it ruined SSIH. The company got arrogant. It also got greedy. It wanted to grow too fast, and it diluted the Omega name by selling too many watches at absurdly low prices.

SSIH had no discipline and no strategy. It had its own distribution in countries like Germany and France. It worked through agents in other countries. It even let some agents contract with outside manufacturers to build their own Omega models! It made no sense.

Then there was ASUAG, a company with Swiss-German origins. ASUAG was a manufacturing company. ASUAG owned a few brands, including Rado and Longines. But its heart and soul was an operation called Ebauches S.A., which supplied components to the whole Swiss watch industry. Ebauches was very capable. Over the years, however, as various small Swiss brands faltered, they went to ASUAG looking for a rescue package. ASUAG was the rich uncle: “Please, we are going broke. Why don’t you buy us? It won’t cost much. You can’t let us disappear.”

ASUAG felt a certain responsibility. Also, it didn’t want to lose its customer base. By the late 1970s, then, ASUAG owned much more than Rado, Longines, and Ebauches. It owned all kinds of brands. It also owned lots of little companies that made components and had run into trouble. Many of these companies had been family-owned for generations. ASUAG rescued them but left most of the family managers in place.

By 1982, ASUAG owned more than 100 separate companies—some big, some small, some modern, some backward. Most of these companies did their own marketing, their own R&D, their own assembly. It was crazy.

The banks agree to merge SSIH and ASUAG to create SMH. It’s time to sort through the jungle. Where do you begin?

We began with the products themselves. We had to understand our strategic positioning, where we stood in world markets. We made a big study, written in German, that became known as the Hayek Report. As you can imagine, the report got lots of attention in Switzerland. It was very controversial.

In the report, we drew a diagram to describe our competitive environment. It looked like a three-layer wedding cake. Back then, the world market for watches was about 500 million units per year. The low-end segment, the bottom layer of the cake, had watches with prices up to $75 or so. That layer represented 450 million units out of 500 million. The middle layer, with watches up to $400 or so, represented about 42 million units. That left 8 million watches for the top layer, with prices from $400 into the millions of dollars.

The Swiss share of the bottom layer, 450 million watches, was zero. We had nothing left. Our share of the middle layer was about 3%. Our share of the top layer was 97%.

We were cornered. The Swiss spent much of the 1970s reacting to quartz by retreating: “Why should we compete with Japan and Hong Kong? They make junk, then they give it away. We have no margin there.” Of course, as we retreated, the Japanese moved up to the next layer of the cake. Then the retreat would start again.

I decided we could retreat no longer. We had to have a broad market presence. We needed at least one profitable, growing, global brand in every segment—including the low end. That explained why we had to control and sell Swatch ourselves rather than license it or sell it through agents, as some people had proposed. It also meant we had to reinvigorate Tissot, the only global brand we had in the middle segment.

The banks studied our report and got nervous, especially about Swatch. Some of them worried that Swatch would cannibalize Tissot. Others were more emphatic: “This is not what consumers think of when they think of Switzerland. What the hell are you going to do with this piece of plastic against Japan and Hong Kong?” But we were adamant: if we did not have mass production, if we did not have a strong position in the low end, we could not control quality and costs in the other segments.

The banks thought Swatch would fail?

Not fail, necessarily. Many thought it might survive—but barely. After all, we were going to battle at the low end. Who could make real money there against people from Japan or Hong Kong? That’s when they proposed that I buy 51% of the company.

What did you see that others didn’t?

I understood that we were not just selling a consumer product, or even a branded product. We were selling an emotional product. You wear a watch on your wrist, right against your skin. You have it there for 12 hours a day, maybe 24 hours a day. It can be an important part of your self-image. It doesn’t have to be a commodity. It shouldn’t be a commodity. I knew that if we could add genuine emotion to the product, and attack the low end with a strong message, we could succeed.

How do you “emotionalize” a watch? Do you mean to say that Swatch turned something that was mundane and functional into a fashion statement?

That’s how most people describe what we did. But it’s not quite right. Fashion is important. The people at our Swatch Lab in Milan and our many other designers do beautiful work. The artists who make our Swatch special collections design wonderful watches (see the first insert, “Franco Bosisio: In the Eye of the Swatch Storm”). But take a trip to Hong Kong and look at the styles, the designs, the colors. They make pretty watches over there too.

Franco Bosisio: In the Eye of the Swatch Storm

“It’s almost embarrassing. I go out to dinner, and all I see are Swatches. Swatch now accounts for 40% of the …

We are not just offering people a style. We are offering them a message. This is an absolutely critical point. Fashion is about image. Emotional products are about message—a strong, exciting, distinct, authentic message that tells people who you are and why you do what you do. There are many elements that make up the Swatch message. High quality. Low cost. Provocative. Joy of life. But the most important element of the Swatch message is the hardest for others to copy. Ultimately, we not just offering watches. We are offering our personal culture.

You mean people can look at a watch from Hong Kong and then look at a Swatch and sense a different culture?

It’s not just the mechanics of the product. It’s also the environment around the product. One thing we forget when we analyze global competition is that most products are sold to people who share our culture. Europeans and Americans are the biggest groups in the world buying products from Asia. So if you can surround your product with your own culture—without ever denigrating other cultures or being racist in any way—it can be a powerful advantage.

We are offering our products to a sympathetic audience. The people who buy Swatches are proud of us. They root for us. They want us to win. Europeans and Americans are damn happy if you can show that their societies are not decadent—that every Japanese or Taiwanese worker is not ten times more productive or more intelligent than they are.

What is a concrete example of embedding culture in the message around Swatch?

How did we launch Swatch in Germany? Did we saturate the airwaves with paid advertisements? No. Anyone can do that. We built a giant Swatch. It was 500 feet high, weighed 13 tons, and actually worked. We suspended that giant Swatch outside the tallest skyscraper in Frankfurt, the headquarters of Commerzbank. It was really something to see!

I remember asking the chairman of the bank for permission. He thought we were crazy. We were crazy, but we had already gotten authorization from the city engineers and the local government. And we persuaded him that this giant Swatch would show his customers that his bank had heart and emotion. So there it hung. And all it said was: Swatch. Swiss. DM60.

That outrageous display communicated the essence of the Swatch message. It was high quality—Swiss. It was low cost—what could be more affordable than DM60? It was a big provocation to hang a watch from a huge, grim skyscraper. And it was funny, fanciful, a joke—joy of life. Believe me, when we took it down, everyone we had wanted to reach had received our message.

We also hung a giant Swatch in Tokyo, in the Ginza. This message can work in Japan as well. By value, Swiss companies account for more than 50% of all the watches sold in Japan. SMH accounts for 75% of that 50%. Do you think we broadcast these figures? Or that we act arrogantly in Japan? Of course not. The Japanese are sympathetic to us. We’re nice people from a small country. We have nice mountains and clear water. They like us and our products, and we like them.

So you’re really talking about advertising and promotion?

I am talking about everything we do. Everything we do and the way we do everything sends a message. Let me give another example—our “Swatch the World” celebration in Zermatt last fall. This was a huge occasion for us. It celebrated the production of our 100 millionth Swatch. It was a very public event. Political leaders came to Zermatt. There was lots of hoopla, lots of excitement.

We could have spent millions of francs on champagne, caviar, and dancing. Instead, we created an artistic event, a tasteful event, an honest event. It was set in a village at the foot of the Matterhorn, the symbol of Swiss authenticity. But it was lively and offbeat. We had street musicians, artists, reggae, clowns. We also had Jean-Michel Jarre, the brilliant young composer from France. He wrote original music for us and beamed a multimedia light show against the Alps.

More than 40,000 people came to Zermatt from all over Europe. The newspapers and magazines and television stations carried big reports. It was a critically important statement of the Swatch message. And what were we communicating? Our culture. Our sense of ourselves and what we stand for.

Do you use the same logic with all of your other brands too?

Each brand is different, so each message is different. But each brand has a message. My job is to sit in the bunker with a machine gun defending the distinct messages of all my brands. I am the custodian of our messages. I review every new communications campaign for every single brand.

Let’s talk about Omega. We built Swatch from the ground up. We had to rescue Omega from near oblivion. Omega is a crucial brand for SMH. We make as much money with Omega as we do with Swatch. Yet no one ever discusses it.

So why was Omega near oblivion?

Omega is one of the Swiss watch industry’s great brands. Its history goes back to 1848. You should visit the watchmaking museums and look at the pieces Omega made 50 or 100 years ago. They are wonderful. Few brands had or have Omega’s potential power.

The problems started in the early 1970s. There were bad business practices. The people there became arrogant. They treated their agents and dealers badly. If an agent from, say, New Jersey needed 200 units of a particular model, Omega would say: “You’re crazy! Don’t bother us with such nonsense. We’ll give you 50.”

Second, and much worse, Omega became greedy. Rolex sells 600,000 watches per year. That’s about as many as you can sell before a luxury brand begins to lose its prestige. That’s about how many Omega was selling in the late 1970s. But Omega wanted to grow more rapidly. So they took the easy route. They figured, “If we can sell 600,000, why not a million? Or 2 million? Or 3 million?”

Which meant, of course, they had to lower the price radically. A jeweler would say, “Omega is wonderful, but it is too expensive for my clients. How about giving me an Omega that is cheaper?” Now, if you are crazy, or I guess if you are greedy, you agree.

That was the kiss of death. Omega was everywhere: high price, medium price, precious metals, cheap gold plating. There were 2,000 different models! No one knew what Omega stood for. By the end of 1980, the company was again in a deep crisis, its deepest ever.

How did you develop the recovery plan?

It was very painful. Early on, before the SMH merger, we spent days behind closed doors with the company’s managers and bankers. Some of the people suggested that we sell Omega to the Japanese, who had offered to buy it. It was still a powerful brand despite the problems, and it would fetch a lot of money. Of course, that would have been tragic for Switzerland.

Some managers from Omega were pleading that we take the brand down-market to face Citizen and Seiko in the middle segment. That was absurd! I fought them tooth and nail on that. At one point, the people at Omega would not even let us on their premises. It was bitter.

“We don’t offer an image. We offer a message.”

We made the investment in SMH in 1985, and we were free to act. I pushed out practically the entire management of Omega. I fired a lot of people. I got the reputation as a brutal guy. I am not a brutal guy. But the organization was so full of arrogance and stupidity that I didn’t have much choice. Then we implemented our strategy to give Omega back its message. Not an image, a message. We had to be clear, consistent, and credible.

What is Omega’s message?

Omega is an elite watch for people who achieve—in sports, the arts, business, the professions—and help shape the world. It is a watch for people who are somebody because they made themselves somebody, not because their grandfather left them a trust fund or because they made money from insider trading. The astronauts who landed on the moon achieved something. They were smart, healthy, courageous. They wore Omega. So did the Soviet cosmonauts. That message had been destroyed.

You also reorganized manufacturing, assembly, and distribution. Did these changes play a big role in Omega’s turnaround?

We did all those things. We paid closer attention to logistics and quality and inventories. We redesigned the manufacturing process. Omega gave up most of its manufacturing when we created SMH and centralized production. There was a lot of resistance. People said we would destroy the brand.

We do treat Omega specially, however. ETA makes movements for Omega as it does for all our brands. But we sell those movements to no one else inside or outside the company. Because those movements are specially made, ETA stamps the Omega name, not ETA, on the movement. This way, when customers or dealers open a watch to repair it or change the battery, they still see Omega. By the way, this is true only for quartz watches. Omega designs most of its own mechanical movements and buys them from Frédéric Piquet, as do most high-class Swiss watches. We own Piquet.

All these reforms were important. But they’re not the main story. The main story is the message and the discipline the message imposes. We immediately reduced the number of models from 2,000 to 1,000. We have since cut back to 130. We don’t allow anyone to make Omegas under license. We stopped building lavish or showy watches—people who achieve don’t care about those things. We stopped making Omegas with gold plating. We make smart watches out of real metal: platinum, titanium, gold, special steel alloys.

“At Omega, we stopped building lavish or showy watches—people who achieve just don’t care about those things.”

Omega started making sense again. This is what an Omega looks like. This is what Omega stands for. We gave Omega back its message.

Swatch and Omega have completely different messages. Why does it matter strategically that SMH owns both brands? How does the success of Swatch help Omega?

It’s not just Omega. Swatch has helped the entire Swiss industry. It has restored our credibility with the public. It has restored our credibility with the trade. The perception of Swiss watches today is so different from ten years ago. Jewelers and department stores beg us to carry Swatch. If customers come for Swatch, and the shop doesn’t have it, they won’t accept anything else. They leave disappointed. This has a big psychological spillover to all of our brands—including Omega.

I really believe the phenomenal success of these $40 watches helps the climate for selling $500 watches—or $5,000 watches, for that matter. We have reestablished our technical superiority over the Japanese watchmakers. If we can build beautiful, high-quality watches that sell for only $40, imagine what must be the quality and accuracy of watches that sell for $2,000!

Let’s move from products to production systems. This is the age of the lean corporation. Why is SMH so vertically integrated?

We are vertically integrated because it is the only way to maintain our strategic independence and freedom to maneuver in the market. We can’t be broad in the marketplace without being deep in our production systems. And we can’t support deep production systems without a broad presence in the marketplace.

Here is the strategic reality we face. There are three centers of watchmaking in the world: Switzerland, Japan, and Hong Kong. But only the Swiss and the Japanese build movements, the complex micromechanical and electronic components that are the “guts” of a watch. To build electronic movements, you have to master semiconductor technology, quartz, batteries, miniaturization. For mechanical movements, you have to master intricate micro-mechanics and the old art of watchmaking in the luxury segment. You either commit fully to the business or get out.

We have some advantages here in Switzerland. We have hundreds of years of experience in the technologies and techniques of watchmaking. Families have spent generations in our factories. They have a feel for this business, a special touch. They are masters at working with parts so small you need a microscope to see them. Not to mention the tooling to build these parts. There are plenty of toolmakers around the world, but not for parts with these dimensions.

When we designed the Swatch factory, we built special machines for injection molding, automated assembly—virtually everything. There were only a handful of people in the world with the know-how to build those machines. They all lived in this part of Switzerland.

If you had all this expertise, why was the company so troubled?

We spent much of the 1980s reinventing our production systems to leverage our expertise. I’ve already described the mess we found at ASUAG and SSIH. So we made massive reorganizations. Brands no longer build their watches. Our production divisions have full responsibility for manufacturing and assembly. We standardized as many parts as we could among the brands: quartz resonators, stepping motors, and so on. We standardized much of the tooling for these parts. We made huge investments in high-tech operations like semiconductors and batteries. We made huge commitments to automating our assembly lines.

Our cost structure today is completely different from when we created SMH. It is not merely because we are more productive. It is because we have totally changed the logic of our business system. We have radically decentralized marketing and thoroughly centralized manufacturing. There is no comparison between what exists at SMH today and what existed at ASUAG and SSIH (see the second insert, “The Many Faces of SMH”).

The Many Faces of SMH

Nicolas Hayek runs a competitive juggernaut—one of Europe’s most powerful and well-positioned companies. It is …
SMH has invested more than SFr1 billion in technology and factories. Why such enormous investments?We have been making up lost ground. Throughout the 1970s, as companies in Hong Kong assembled hundreds of millions of cheap watches, Japan made investments to supply them with movements. They built big factories and slashed prices. A movement used to cost, on average, between $8 and $20. Today it costs between $2 and $5. The Swiss couldn’t play that game. We sold movements only to very special people in Hong Kong—companies building watches for brands like Timex, who wanted to market to customers in the United States that their watches had Swiss movements. We were uncompetitive on cost. We just didn’t have the volume.So we decided to get much more aggressive. We had to confront the Japanese in Hong Kong. We seized every opportunity we could. One day, for example, I was seated with an entrepreneur from Hong Kong who sold finished watches. He bought all his movements from one of the giant Japanese companies. He was begging me for an Omega agency in Asia. I said, “How can you expect me to give you an Omega agency when you buy 20 million movements a year from a competitor of mine?” He told me, “I will buy from you if you give me the same price.”I agreed to the order on the spot because the price was profitable for us. ETA worked night and day to produce those movements. But it was an important opportunity for us. We could not allow the Japanese to control movements in Hong Kong. They would have developed enormous leverage over us.What do you mean?Imagine if we got so uncompetitive in movements that we had to get out of the business altogether. And imagine if, like so many companies in other industries, we then focused on design and marketing and final assembly. And then imagine if we designed a great new model for Tissot, a watch that was going to be a big hit in the United States and hurt our rivals.Now, what if our Japanese supplier recognized the appeal of that new model? You can imagine what might happen: “We are very sorry, but we are having capacity problems at our plant. We know we used to charge you $3.50 for that movement. It is now $12.” Well, that destroys the economics of the watch. So the next thing the supplier says, “Of course, we can make special arrangements in our plant. But we prefer to deal with partners rather than customers. We are prepared to become 50% owners of the brand and supply movements at more favorable prices.”That sounds conspiratorial. We heard that argument about Japanese leverage in computers because they dominate flat-panel displays and power supplies. The Japanese compete fiercely among themselves, why should they conspire against European companies?Let me correct myself. It is wrong to talk about “the Japanese” in our business. In movements, there are only two Japanese companies that really matter—Citizen and Seiko. The moment you get five or ten Japanese companies in the same industry, they do fight like hell. But there are plenty of industries where that is not the case, and ours is one.By the way, I am not suggesting that movement suppliers would single out Europeans or Americans. We sell lots of movements to watch companies in Japan. Why? Because Citizen and Seiko sometimes can’t or won’t supply them. We sold movements to Casio when it started making watches. Why? Because Citizen and Seiko couldn’t or wouldn’t supply them. That’s the reality.You also invested hundreds of millions of Swiss francs to make semiconductor chips. But the world is flooded with chips. Isn’t that a case of unnecessary vertical integration?No, it isn’t. The world is flooded with five-volt and three-volt circuits—the chips used in computers, televisions, and VCRs. But watches use 1.5 volt chips. There are three companies in the world that dominate production of 1.5 volt chips. One is SMH. The other two are in Japan. We must make our own chips to maintain our independence.We considered all the options before we made this investment. Some of our people wanted to close down the operation and find other companies to build chips for us. We visited companies from Norway to the United States. We showed them our designs and said we would cooperate with them. The best quotes were three times our costs. So that didn’t work.Some of our people wanted us to diversify into computer chips as well, but that was crazy. How would competing in memories or microprocessors help us in watches? And how were we going to go up against companies such as Intel or Motorola or Toshiba?So we decided to make our own chips and to make them in huge volumes. That meant mass markets—Swatch. It meant pushing harder on movement sales—Hong Kong. It also meant creating new markets for 1.5 volt chips. Today you can find our chips in hearing aids, pacemakers, cellular telephones, even the monitor switch for antilock brakes. In fact, more than 50% of our revenues from 1.5 volt chips come from markets outside the watch industry. Those revenues and profits help us keep investing. And they also keep volumes up and costs down.Can’t you take this too far, though? Why risk diversifying into products like pagers and telephones and building them yourself?What risk are you talking about? Our pagers grow directly out of our experience with watches. There is tremendous proprietary technology in the Swatch Pager. It uses high-precision injection molding that requires specialized tooling—just like the Swatch. It uses very advanced stepping motors, a technology we mastered in our watches. Who is better suited for this market than we are?Look at the wristwatch pagers out there today. They have digital displays. They are ugly. They are heavy. It’s no accident we will market the world’s first successful analog wristwatch pager. We have the technology. We know how to design manufacturing systems that make us competitive. We also know how to design attractive products—and how to market them.How many worldwide brands can you name for telecom products sold directly to the end customer? Alcatel or Siemens understand how to sell to governments and big companies. We understand how to sell to people. This is going to be a big business for us.I understand the strategic case for integration. But how do you guard against the bureaucracy it always seems to create?We don’t need elaborate planning bureaucracies or corporate staffs. If we have a big decision, we assemble the best group we can and let them go at it. Then we move on to other things.Organizational structure is the most inhuman thing ever invented. It goes against our nature as people. So we have clear boundaries and targets. Our brands work independently of one another. The people at Omega and Rado and Tissot have their own buildings. They have their own managements. They are responsible for their own design, marketing, communications, and distribution. They are emotionally connected to their brands, not just to SMH as an entity. I want people at Rado to love Rado. And I want people at Longines to love their brand.“Organizational structure is the most inhuman thing.”
We are big believers in decentralization. This company has 211 profit centers. We set tough, demanding budgets for them. I personally participate in detailed budget reviews for our major profit centers. Then we track performance closely. We get monthly sales figures for all profit centers on the sixth day of the following month. We get P&L statements about 10 or 15 days later. The moment anything looks strange, we react very quickly, very decisively, very directly.And we are big believers in project teams. Find your best people, let them tackle a problem, disband them, and move on to the next problem. I suppose this comes from my consulting background. Every company needs certain functions. You have to watch costs every day. You have to watch quality every day. But you don’t decide every day whether to launch a Swatch Pager or whether to build a new chip plant.Of course, this approach works only if the whole management team is totally focused on developing products and improving operations, not fighting with each other. Last September, Goldman, Sachs in London issued a report on our company. It said our management is “obsessed with productivity.” We’re not obsessed. But we do keep our eye on what matters. We don’t spend a penny that we don’t have to spend.Is SMH corporation a realistic model for other companies to emulate?Everything we’ve done can be done by lots of companies in Switzerland, or France, or Germany, or America. All it takes is the will to do it. Which is, I admit, no small matter. As a consultant, I had been preaching, shouting, writing for years about how European companies could compete with the Far East. At SMH, I got the chance to practice what I preached. But there were some special factors at work here.For one thing, the Swiss watch industry was completely devastated. People had given up; they were ready to sell our most valuable brands to foreign competitors and sell our factories for their real estate value. If ASUAG or SSIH had been making one franc of profit, they would have thrown me out the window: “You’re crazy, what do you know about watches anyway?”Second, I put my own money on the line, along with money from our investors. The fact that our group controls a majority of the equity means we could make decisions that other people were scared to make.I inflicted pain, made controversy, created worry. Nobody believed the targets we set back in the mid-1980s. People thought we were crazy to invest SFr1.1 billion in one of the highest cost regions in the world. But it was our investment on the line. There was never any doubt who was running the show—or, for that matter, who would get blamed if we failed.A version of this article appeared in the March–April 1993 issue of Harvard Business Review.

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Style

I have touched Style already, but under the Rolex Wannabe point of view.

I will try to figure out Nicolas Hayek point of view. First let’s take a look on him.

In an interview to Harvard Business Review perhaps he summarized himself, his philosophy which is behind his strategy: (He was explaining the Swatch watch, but all products under his Swatch group follows the same idea with particular strategies):

“We are not just offering people a style. We are offering them a message. This is an absolutely critical point. Fashion is about image. Emotional products are about message— a strong, exciting, distinct, authentic message that tells people who you are and why you do what you do. There are many elements that make up the Swatch message. High quality. Low cost. Provocative. Joy of life. But the most important element of the Swatch message is the hardest for others to copy. Ultimately, we not just offering watches. We are offering our personal culture.”

Obviously he is pushing a little bit too far, because the message is the Style, even if Swiss.

When it comes to Style what comes to mind is the famous quote of the French naturalist Buffon (1707–88) which said: Style is the man himself.’ Although he was concerned with writing, if fits like a glove for anything which reflects one’s style.

To what I should add it is even more the woman, which statistics shows spends several times more than men enhancing their style and, to many, the expenditure with expensive watches by man is cheap in terms of personal “accoutrements” when compared to the extension women goes when the subject is fashion to show off her style.

Accoutrement is not properly defined and explored at the Wikipedia entry above. It was borrowed from the French long ago, in the middle ages, it has also an anglicized version of accouterment, and has different meanings in each language. Putting it simply, in English, it means:  

  • an article of equipment or dress especially when used as an accessory
  • Soldier’s equipment and trappings, excluding clothes and weapons (wristwatches for soldiers started to be part of the accoutrements in WW I)
  • an identifying and often superficial characteristic

The accent when speaking is important, because in French it means also a garment that is considered strange or grotesque, almost considered an involuntary disguise, like for instance wearing yourself like a clown.   

There is an extremely fine, subtle, complicated, elusive and eventually impossible to grasp intellectually about the relation of appearance and what goes inside. I do not feel capable of elaborate on such matters, but comes to my mind a genius which is one of the more competent artists in terms of exploring this characteristic of human beings: Oscar Wilde .  

He explores all that in his plays but he excels in perhaps his most famous one:  The picture of Dorian Grey. I understand that reading and exploring everything that Wilde laid down in this masterpiece is impractical and I suggest to hear the presentation about Oscar Wilde which Prof Pascal Aquien did at the Sorbonne, France, centered on the Picture of Dorian Grey, where he also does the connection of external appearance of gold and interior of nothing.  

On a more mundane and straightforward manner, Internet tells me that in a covering letter of 2 February 1891 to the Daily Telegraph, Oscar Wilde wrote of a letter on ‘Fashion in Dress’ which he enclosed, “I don’t wish to sign my name, though I am afraid everybody will know who the writer is: one’s style is one’s signature always.”

Narrowing it down to wrist watches, it couldn’t have a better definition than ‘one’s signature always’. The article is about women and what they dress but you dress a watch too and, most important, it inaugurates Wilde’s desire to announce himself as a commercial writer: it was the first work by him prepared as a composition for specific and separate publication, and it is the only piece of his journalism (out of over 150 examples) that was copyrighted. (cf Wikipedia). Today it is practically impossible to see anything printed or at any media under that context which has not been done under that intention.
Wilde is famous for his irony being difficult to know when he was serious and when he was pulling someone’s legs…  If a counterpoint for Wilde was the importance of being superficial, then the apparent triviality of clothes may well have been a serious business. France is supposed to turn 20 billion dollars out o fashion in 2020. If you think of Watches as fashion, then Switzerland will turn in 2020 over 20 billion dollars out of watches.
Thinking about dressing a watch brings to mind another quotation from Wilde: ‘A well-tied tie is the first serious step in life.’ No matter how frivolous this statement is, it reflects a rite of passage in changing clothes to move on and enter new social circles. It comes to my mind about the obligation imposed on my grandson Tiago by his sorority to wear a formal suit as a rite of passage.
Bringing it nowadays, take a look at the Rolex watch affair,, involving Sarkozy’s then president of France:
Flashback: February 13, 2009. On national television, French advertising mogul Jacques Séguéla defends his friend and then President Sarkozy, heavily criticized for: dining in expensive restaurants, cruising around the Mediterranean on his friend’s yacht, flaunting Ray Ban mirror sunglasses and… wearing a Rolex watch. To put this into context:

  • 1. in 2009 France experienced its worst recession since the end of World War II, and
  • 2. the French are reputed to be envious people.

So, when Séguéla replied “How can you reprimand a President for having a Rolex? “Everyone has a Rolex! If by the age of 50 you don’t own a Rolex, you’re a total failure!” it created an uproar. Rolex, obviously, thanks him to this day…

Obviously, you could never say, having in mind an Omega Moon Watch, that “if you didn’t become an astronaut by the age of 50, you’re a total failure!”

But you could say that you do not belong to the Rolex Wannabe herd and could say that you lean more to what Lincoln said centuries ago: “Life shapes the face you have at thirty. But at fifty you get the face you deserve”

And the watch you are wearing says it all…

Case studies of Style

Omega Style

Logo History

Analysis in more detail: The story and the definition of Omega positioning

Rolex Style

Logo history

I have created a separate entry for Rolex

Tissot Style

Logo History

Analysis in more detail: The story and the definition of Tissot positioning

Tag Heuer

Tag Heuer Logo History

See this separate entry for Tag Heuer

Seiko

Seiko Logo History

See Seiko at Wikipedia

Timex

Timex Logo History

See Timex at Wikipedia

Fortis

See Fortis at Wikipedia

Casio

Casio Logo History

See Casio at Wikipedia

Fyita

See Fyita at Wikipedia

See the Chinese Watch Industry

IBM Style

IBM Logo History

Spending most of my adult life working at IBM I feel comfortable to bring up to our discussion the IBM Style, which I lived from and under.
Time is a premium commodity and I do not expect anybody to read in detail, with all the pointers embedded, but at least to take a look in the article (GOOD DESIGN IS GOOD BUSINESS) I posted on my site blog about main frame computers from which I will quote a few notes to figure out the IBM Style.

IBM has a very humble origins, starting as we know today from IBM’s precursor, the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company (CTR), created by the merger of The International Time Recording Company, (ITR)Computing Scale Company,(CSC) and the Tabulating Recording Company (founded by Herman Hollerith, inventor of the punched card tabulating system) in 1911. By 1924 CTR becomes International Business Machines (IBM). In 1911 CTR had roughly 1000 employes and in 1924 IBM had roughly 3000.

IBM Products 1920

At the beginning of the depression (1930) it had some 8000 employes and at the end 1940) some 10000 and you can see in more detail here.

Expansion to Europe, Asia and Latin America

At home the Social Security Act created an immense workload for IBM which expanded

The Data Management of the Social Security Act was done by three IBM Machines above

IBM Display with the 405 under the dome at the N Y World’s Fair of 1939
IBM Endicott in 1939

In the war, basically it was all punched cards, but there were incursions in Computers and the like and this equipment and the parts they used created the opportunity to open the doors to build machines dedicated to scientific computing.

IBM help to the US W W II effort:

At the end of WW II IBM had some 30000 employes, by 1955 it doubled and by 1960 it doubled again reaching more than 100000 and that’s when IBM shoot the moon and reached for greatness.

Thanks to the New Deal and the War, the US Government became IBM’s biggest customer.

Poughkeepsie Plant Inauguration to manufacture accounting machines D.Eisenhower, then President of Columbia and Mrs. Eleanor Roosevelt and TJ Watson
Mark I 1944
SSEC 1947
IBM 700 series 1952 First Electronic Computer dedicated to accounting
IBM 650 1954 First Medium Size Mass produced Computer with over 2000 units and in service till 1969
IBM 1401 1959 First Small Size Mass produced Computer with over 12000 units and in service till 1972
IBM 7030 Srecht First transistorized and fastest computer 1961 beaten by small CDC Company and motivation to the creation of the 360 system

Sabre was one of those things. Take a look

With the move IBM took when creating System 360 it would reach 270000 employes in 1970, from 170000 in 1965, when it was introduced and at the peak of this era it would reach some 35000 in the 80’s and by the time it changed to Services it would it all time high of some 450000 in the 90’s. A compact view of that can be seen at the following article.

IBM became heavily involved with NASA and spaceflights

The image all that was presented to here generate an image which can be perdceived at the following article, from which I quote a summary.

IBM at the peak of its might

Defining American Greatness: IBM from Watson to Trump

By Thomas Haigh
Communications of the ACM, January 2018, Vol. 61 No. 1, Pages 32-37
10.1145/3163909

Greatness meant taking risks and making massive long-term investments in new technologies and platforms. During the 1960s IBM, home of the dark suit and starched collar, made a gamble on a scale that would appall today’s hoodie-clad, thrill seeking, Silicon Valley executives. While today’s tech companies like to boast about their “moon-shot” projects, firms such as Alphabet, Facebook, and Oracle derive the vast majority of their revenues from a handful of products and services that dominate their respective niches. Backward compatibility is more important than innovation, as Microsoft showed when turning Windows and Office products into lucrative monopolies. Most tech firms develop a platform as startups and grow it steadily over many years, defending it against threats from upstart competitors.

By the 1970s IBM held a similarly dominant position in the business-oriented mainframe market, but only because it launched a massive research and development effort during the early 1960s. In April 1964 when IBM introduced its System/360 range it rendered its entire installed product base obsolete. Two years earlier IBM had reportedly budgeted $5 billion to develop the new range, twice its entire annual revenue. According to Watson Jr. the actual costs were so high that in 1965 the firm unexpectedly found itself just “a few weeks” from needing “emergency loans to meet the payroll.” (See “Father, Son & Co” in the Further Reading section.)

I have and read the book above and Thomas J.Watson Jr. is, to my account and I believe of anybody, at the same stature of Steve Jobs or Bill Gates, with a lot more class and contextually and effectively with more punch within the stablishment than any other company has ever had, being threatened to be split by an anty thrust action by the US Congress for representing a serious threat. In 1982, the antitrust division abandoned its case against IBM. The firm remained the “800 pound gorilla” of the computer industry; as late as 1986, a bitter critic characterized it as “the single most powerful firm in the world today.”

This story and other interesting one’s can be read at IBM and American Politics, 1970-1999, in an article by David M.Hart.

His father, T.J.Watson, was more like John D. Rockefeller or William C.Durant, although Durant wasn’t that sucessfull. They all share the same style.

The end of an era

IBM had a US$8.10 billion loss for the 1992 financial year.  Biggest ever loss in the history of capitalism. IBM’s core mainframe business had been disrupted by the advent of the personal computer and the client server. IBM couldn’t compete with smaller nimbler less diversified competitors. It was a near death experience. An outsider, Lou Gerstner, with no experience or even background  in computing, acting with good sense and listening to clients, found out that biggest problem that all the big companies were facing in 1993 was in integrating all the separate computing technologies that were emerging at the time. Obviously he cut to the bone the high costs that the traditional way IBM did business. This and the fact that IBM’s greatest strengths was its ability to provide integrated solutions for customers originated an entirely new company which the only resemblance with the old one is the logo mark. And the style we are talking about went down the drain and the new stile should be analysed separately, what I do not feel competent to do because I left IBM in 1993.

Since this exercise is not meant for amusement, although I confess I had a lot to realize that I was part of a fantastic experience that brought me things far beyond than my wildest dreams, let’s extract some eventually wise lessons from it:

  • Reality is unpredictable, you can’t model it satisfactorily and no matter how confident or competent you feel about your plannings, this warning should come up front. As Woody Allen once said: You want to see God laughing, show Him your plans…
  • Experience is a beacon that shines backwards, but if you leave aside what really happened, the fact of life is that he average life expectancy of a Fortune 500 company in 2010, according to the article of Forbes, has declined from around 75 years half a century ago to less than 15 years today, and heading towards 5 years and I have serious doubts that something can be done, contradicting the Forbes columnist from whom I took the quote, who thinks this can be fixed.
  • I checked at Interne in 2020, the average lifespan of a company on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index was just over 21 years, compared with 32 years in 1965
  • The difference from the 2010 Forbes information is not due with something done on purpose, but to the fat that people are learning to live with the information revolution technology and bringing it down to more human specifics on how to survive and live.
  • According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, about two-thirds of businesses with employees survive at least 2 years and about half survive at least 5 years. That is overall and not some special group.
  • Better yet, average to whom? I would like to see the statistics for the Dow Jones 30 group, and the 3300 NASDAQ group and the 500 Standard and Poors group spread for decades, from the 90’s, specially for the 21rst century and see if it can be extracted some tendency for sure.
  • Deloitte created it’s Deloitte’s Shift Index, which apparently was replaced to their consultancy on the subject, which, honestly, seems to me bull shit because fear to them is the main issue.
  • At the end of the day, either you trust or you don’t and this is perhaps the strongest effect of style

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